1. Market Overview

Today is Sunday, July 19, 2026. Bitcoin is currently trading in a range of 64,500--65,000, with a 24-hour gain of about 1%. Ethereum is around 1,867. The market is in a low-liquidity weekend phase, with bulls and bears locked in a stalemate.

2. News Catalysts — Positive Factors:
US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net inflow of $75.5 million; ETH ETFs had net inflows of $105.5 million. Institutional capital continues to provide bottom support.
The crypto fear index has rebounded to 28, moving away from the extreme fear zone.
Inflation data cooled down: PPI year-over-year was 2.6%, below expectations of 3.3%.
The probability of a July rate hike dropped sharply from 42% to 17%, which is bullish for risk assets.

Uncertainty Factors:
Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted, and geopolitical risks are rising.
Bitcoin is under pressure on its own over the weekend.
An alert has been issued for a BIP 110 consensus vulnerability, which could lead to an approximately $1.2 billion chain split between old and new nodes.
Bitcoin options expire today; the key pain point price is 63,000.
Coinbase CEO claimed that BTC already bottomed at 60,000, but on-chain data and market pricing are in disagreement.

3. Technical Analysis
Bitcoin: Daily MA5=64,456, MA10=64,142, MA30=62,637. Moving averages are in a bullish alignment, and price is above all moving averages.
MACD formed a golden cross, and bullish momentum is strengthening.
RSI=55.90, neutral but slightly strong.
On the 4-hour timeframe, MACD histogram values have been continuously expanding, indicating ample bullish momentum.
However, on the 1-hour timeframe, RSI has already reached 83.05, entering the overbought zone; the 15-minute MACD dead cross suggests short-term pullback pressure.

Ethereum: ETH is consolidating in a narrow 1,850–1,900 range. The 1,900 psychological level is a key resistance.
Net capital inflow is -$20.24 million, with signs of profit-taking and outflows near the highs.

On-chain data: funding rates are mild (about 0.003–0.004%), and leverage stress has clearly cooled.
Exchange Bitcoin supply has dropped to 13.7%, the lowest in seven years.
Whale address 0x66f8 has continued adding BTC long positions, increasing to 1,660 BTC (about $107 million).
An inactive wallet transferred nearly 5,908 BTC after 8 years; the “age consumption” metric has surged sharply, warning of high volatility.
In the short term, holders may realize prices around 68,000, and the current price is below that level, placing it in a typical panic-selling range.

Chu Yuechen: 7.19 Bitcoin & ETH trading reference

Short-term direction is unclear, with conflicting signals across timeframes—daily/4-hour are leaning bullish, while the 1-hour is overbought and the 15-minute calls for a pullback.
63,000 is the final line of defense for bulls, while 65,000–65,500 is a key resistance zone in the near term.
Weekend liquidity is low plus geopolitical risk is present; the high-volatility warning is valid.
Watch for confirmation after the traditional markets open on Monday.

For execution: the earlier articles, including today’s morning group chat, also said that Bitcoin 64,800–65,000 could be used to try opening short positions, with the stop-loss set above the prior high point, and placed above 65,600; the target is 63,000.

For ETH: synchronize reference points 1,880–1,900 to build shorts, stop-loss at 1,950, target around 1,800.

In this short setup, we still aim to see the dense trading pressure area hold and absorb the move to pull back.
So when taking the trade, carry your stop-loss; if price breaks upward, exit decisively with the stop-loss.
At these levels, the stop-loss distance is not large—there isn’t a 1,000-point spread—so this is a standard small stop-loss approach.
If the pullback triggered by resistance offers decent profit potential, the risk-reward ratio is very good.

We’re not stubborn—if we get it wrong, we leave decisively!
There are no so-called “big shots” in this market.
One or two wins or losses don’t mean anything.
If you want stable long-term trading, controlling risk is the premise.
The secret to long-term profitability is: small losses, big wins, and not holding onto losing trades—i.e., the ability to control risk.
People who are making money every day—do you think that’s possible?
After all, who would keep exposing their wounds every day! $BTC $ETH ‌ ‌