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SpaceX Is Below Its IPO Price-Opportunity or a Falling Knife?

What a month it’s been for SpaceX (SPCX). Since listing at a US record $135 just five weeks ago, the stock jumped to intraday highs of more than $225 on June 16 before a complete round-trip. Today, the stock is trading in the low $120s, down more than 40% from its peak and below the original IPO price. The shares have fallen nearly 23% since their inclusion into the Nasdaq-100. A real drubbing for investors who bought into the initial euphoria.

The trigger for the latest leg lower was the scrubbed Starship Flight 13 on Thursday. The abort occurred just seconds before ignition due to the failure of two Raptor engines. The first Starship test since the IPO generated intense scrutiny, and the abort lopped another significant chunk off the stock on top of already weak sentiment. SpaceX chief Elon Musk has stated that they’re replacing the engines and plan a restart within days, but the stock is now trading with what’s essentially a nine-out-of-ten losing sessions streak. On top of the launch anomaly, lock-up expirations from early investors and employees are creating a serious supply imbalance in an already jumpy market.

So what makes this more interesting than ugly is that the underlying business appears to be in relatively solid shape. V3 of the Starlink constellation is being rolled out at scale worldwide, and they’re reportedly in negotiations with the DoD regarding compute solutions. The company is also pursuing partnerships around AI infrastructure. Nevertheless, SpaceX carries massive losses-a $4.9B loss in 2025 and another $4.28B in the first quarter of 2026. Thus, this is no “sure bet,” and the propulsion reliability on Starship looks like an ongoing issue, rather than a one-off hiccup.

My assessment is that this feels like a classic post-IPO overreaction, amplified by actual operational challenges, rather than pure panic. I can’t quite call the $126 level a “generational” bottom given ongoing lock-ups and the fact that we haven’t had a fully successful Starship flight since listing. I’d consider initiating a small position with a tight stop rather than diving in with both feet on the dip.

Would you consider buying SPCX at current prices, or are you waiting for confirmation that the Starship engine problems have been resolved?

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