Weekend liquidity is low—watch for short opportunities as Bitcoin and ETH bounce

1. Market overview
Bitcoin is currently ranging in the 64,500—65,000 zone, with a 24-hour gain of about 1%. Ethereum is around 1,867. The market is in a low-liquidity weekend phase, with bulls and bears deadlocked.

2. News sentiment: bullish factors
The U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a net inflow of $75.5 million, while the ETH ETF recorded a net inflow of $105.5 million. Institutional capital continues to provide bottom support. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has rebounded to 28, stepping away from the extreme fear zone. Inflation data cooled: PPI year-over-year rose 2.6%, below the expected 3.3%. The probability of a rate hike in July fell sharply from 42% to 17%, which is favorable for risk assets.

Bearish/uncertainty factors:
Shipping disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, rising geopolitical risk, and Bitcoin bearing the weekend pressure alone. A BIP 110 consensus vulnerability alert could lead to a chain split of about $1.2 billion between old and new nodes. Bitcoin options expire today; the key pain point is 63,000. Coinbase CEO claims BTC hit its bottom at 60,000, but there’s a mismatch between on-chain data and market pricing.

3. Technical analysis
Bitcoin: Daily MA5=64,456, MA10=64,142, MA30=62,637. The moving averages are in a bullish alignment, and price is above all MAs. A MACD golden cross signals strengthening bullish momentum; RSI=55.90, neutral but slightly bullish. On the 4-hour chart, MACD histogram values continue to expand, with ample bullish momentum. However, on the 1-hour chart RSI has already reached 83.05 in the overbought area, and the 15-minute MACD shows a death cross—there is short-term pullback pressure.

Ethereum: ETH is consolidating in a narrow range of 1,850–1,900. The 1,900 psychological level forms a key resistance. Net capital inflow is -$20.24 million, with signs that profit-takers are exiting at higher levels.

4. On-chain data
Funding rates are steady (about 0.003–0.004%), and leverage pressure has clearly cooled. Exchange Bitcoin supply has dropped to 13.7%, a seven-year low. Whale address 0x66f8 has continued adding BTC long positions, to 1,660 BTC (about $107 million). An inactive wallet transferred nearly 5,908 BTC after long dormancy; the “age consumption” metric has surged rapidly. A high-volatility warning suggests short-term holders are realizing prices around 68,000, and the current price is below that level—typical of a panic-selling zone.

Chu Yuchen: 7.19 Bitcoin/ETH trading reference
Short-term direction is unclear, and signals conflict across timeframes—daily/4-hour are slightly bullish, while the 1-hour is overbought and the 15-minute is pulling back. 63,000 is the last line of defense for longs, while 65,000–65,500 is key resistance in the short term. With weekend liquidity being low and the geopolitical risk, the high-volatility warning is valid. Focus on confirmation of direction after the traditional market opens on Monday.

For trade execution: the earlier articles, including the one shared this morning in the group chat, also said that between 64,800—65,000 Bitcoin could attempt short positions, with a stop-loss placed above the previous high point 65,600. The target is 63,000.

For ETH, use the 1,880—1,900 range as the reference to build shorts, stop-loss at 1,950, with a target near 1,800. For this short setup, our intent is to watch the dense trading pressure area and aim for a retracement that it can withstand. When placing the trade, include the stop-loss—if price breaks upward, decisively stop out and exit. At this entry level, the stop-loss distance is not large; it’s not a 1,000-point move—this is a standard small stop-loss approach. If the retracement under pressure provides a decent profit window, the risk-reward ratio is very good.

We don’t act stubbornly. If we do it wrong, we leave decisively! In this market there’s no such thing as a “god.” One or two wins or losses can’t represent anything. If you want long-term, stable trading, controlling risk is the prerequisite. The secret to long-term profits is: small losses, big gains, and not holding stubbornly—that is, the ability to control risk. Do you think the people who make money every day are really possible? After all, who would expose their wounds every day? #比特币