The conflict between the US and Iran continued to escalate on July 18, with attack targets expanding from military installations to energy, freshwater, and technology infrastructure. Iran says that missile strikes hit power facilities in the Jask area and seawater desalination pumps. The US Central Command confirmed that for the seventh consecutive night, it carried out strikes on Iran, with targets including reconnaissance stations, military logistics facilities, underground weapons depots, and maritime targets, and it continued to enforce a naval blockade of Iranian ports. With more than 50k US troops deployed in the Middle East, this is not a short-term reprisal—it is preparing for a longer-term, larger-scale military operation.

Iran’s retaliation has also escalated clearly. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps says it has attacked relevant US facilities in Bahrain, destroyed US unmanned boat storage facilities, and struck an artificial intelligence center used for target location. Even more alarming, Iran has openly stated that if the US continues to strike Iranian bridges and power infrastructure, it will subsequently include US industrial, technology, and AI assets in the Middle East within the scope of attacks. The conflict is shifting from tit-for-tat attacks on military targets to infrastructure warfare, energy warfare, and attacks on technology assets.

This is also the core reason Brent crude oil climbed to $88.27. Shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz has already fallen to a three-week low. Meanwhile, the US continues to carry out a naval blockade of Iranian ports. What the market is worried about is no longer only whether the strait can remain navigable; it is whether the blockade of ports, power damage, attacks on desalination facilities, and ongoing strikes on regional military bases will ultimately lead to a broader disruption of energy supply. If oil prices stay above $85 to $90 for a sustained period, the increase will quickly feed through to US gasoline, logistics, aviation, and chemical costs, pushing CPI and PPI higher again.

The final transmission to financial markets is that liquidity expectations are being compressed again. US inflation data has just cooled, and the oil price rise has brought the risk of re-inflation back. Even if the Federal Reserve does not raise rates temporarily, it will find it harder to release signals of easing. US Treasury yields and the dollar may stay relatively strong, while overvalued tech stocks, gold, and BTC will enter even sharper divergence. What the market is trading now is not a localized conflict, but an energy war that could once again rewrite the path of inflation and liquidity. #夏日创作营