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I came across an interesting research report that explains why, during this US-Iran war, after 20% of global crude oil supply was cut off, the world didn’t experience a real oil crisis in the true sense.
The root of the answer comes from a country you absolutely wouldn’t expect: China!
The timeline is like this:
1. Before the US-Iran war broke out, China’s crude oil imports were extremely high, but around the time Hormuz was cut off, China suddenly cut its import volume in half!
And this reduction in supply downgraded the impact of the supply shortfall brought by Iran—from a full-scale crisis to nothing more than price fluctuations...
You might ask: China’s own demand is so high—if it cuts off imports, isn’t that basically suicide?
This leads to the second interesting piece of data: China’s crude oil reserves...
2. Although China’s crude oil reserve amount is a state secret, researchers still reached a shocking conclusion through satellite data assessment: before the strait was cut off, China’s crude oil reserves had already reached an astonishing 1.4 billion barrels...
What does this mean? Answer: one barrel per person on average across all of China...
And the total even exceeds the combined sum of the United States, Japan, Europe, and other major world economies...
So when China cut its crude oil imports, it could completely consume these reserves for more than a year...
3. So where did all this crude oil come from?
The answer is simple: Iran, Russia...
China, through renminbi transactions, accumulated a massive amount of crude oil from those two countries that have been excluded from international oil settlement systems (dollar settlement), and it was acquired in a relatively cheap way, along with some additional upside...
4. Why didn’t China allow crude oil prices to skyrocket? Isn’t the US an enemy?
This question is even more interesting!
If you understand what the “Malacca Straits dilemma” means to China, you’ll know that for a long time, the main factor troubling China geopolitically and in terms of straits issues was the “Malacca Straits”...
Because the importance of this strait to China is no less than that of Hormuz to the global economy.
So to address this, China secretly stockpiled large amounts of crude oil, making it a state secret, and during this US-Iran situation, China for the first time had the capability to test whether, after crude oil imports were cut off, the entire reserve system could sustain normal domestic economic operations.
The result was obvious: China successfully completed the test.
In the end, it’s not that China intentionally saved the global market from a crisis caused by oil prices, but that this opportunity was hard to replicate in the first place.
When Trump visited the US, this operation had already begun, so it may not necessarily be the result of talks between the two sides within their own governments, though that’s possible. But I feel it’s more like China quietly ran an energy crisis drill—and used the chance to sell the US and the rest of the world a favor...
And most importantly, this may be declaring a fact: since then, China has also become a global oil player, and the so-called “Malacca Straits dilemma” is no longer the core factor blocking China on straits issues.
That’s also why this big good deed—one that is clearly capable of being promoted internationally as soft power—was completed entirely without any media coverage background...
Finally, one more thing: the data above and some of the viewpoints come from a research institution called Kpler Research. I also happened to see it while browsing, and it felt very interesting, so I’m sharing it...
After all, based on this logic, this US-Iran conflict didn’t ultimately evolve into a full-blown economic crisis; the main contributor is China, because through this kind of approach China helped slash the pressure on the global crude oil demand side by 60%...
And China still doesn’t want others to know...#夏日创作营