Global Macro Snapshot Today: Rate-Cut Expectations Swing Back and Forth, as Markets Hold Their Breath for Policy Signals

The main story in global capital markets today, in plain terms, is one sentence—after inflation data just gave markets a sweet treat, Federal Reserve officials turned around and slapped them. The up and down of all risk assets ultimately comes down to the same core question: whether dollar liquidity is loosening or not.

First, the upside. This week’s U.S. June CPI and PPI both came in below expectations, clearly turning inflation around. Markets briefly got excited, with many betting on no change in July and an official rate cut in September. The U.S. dollar index and Treasury yields promptly plunged, and BTC followed through by surging to a rebound high of $65,588. Bullish sentiment briefly ran wild.

But it didn’t last. The Cleveland Fed chair poured cold water today in person, with very firm wording: inflation is still far from the goal, the labor market remains strong, and there are simply no conditions for a rate cut in the near term. The moment this was said, overly optimistic expectations were instantly knocked back to reality. The U.S. dollar index inched higher to 100.75, Treasury yields stabilized and then rebounded, and long-duration assets were pressured across the board. U.S. stocks fell across the board overnight—Dow -0.77%, S&P 500 -1.01%, Nasdaq -1.40%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index even dropped directly into a technical bear market. Funds in AI chip stocks fled aggressively; high-level positions loosened badly.

What’s interesting is that money didn’t completely leave—it was playing a seesaw. It pulled back from valuation-crowded tech giants; some flowed into traditional safe-haven assets like gold and crude oil. The rest went into the crypto market, which had already seen a deep prior pullback and whose valuations are comparatively cleaner. BTC managed to stabilize slightly during the day largely because this diverted capital is supporting it.

Overall, the market is now in a typical “policy-waiting window.” Rate-cut expectations are being stretched back and forth like a rubber band, and nobody dares to make a big bet. Next, any official remarks or economic data could become the trigger for short-term market moves. My take is: the direction is unclear, but volatility will not be absent. #PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购