#夏日创作营 Predict next week’s market direction in advance! A detailed breakdown of key levels for gold, silver, and oil.

Looking ahead to next week, overall market news flow is relatively quiet. Most institutional funds are staying on the sidelines, so the market is highly likely to continue the range-bound consolidation pattern. Any one-way trend needs to wait until key levels are broken before it can start. For short-term trading, it’s not advisable to heavily position for a particular direction.

I. Interpretation of the US Dollar Index (DXY) trend
This week, the DXY closed with a long lower shadow bearish candle, with intense tug-of-war between bulls and bears and significant divergence in market positioning. Next week’s main trading range is set at 100.1—101.1. The market direction will wait for a breakdown confirmation:
- If it holds above 101.1 effectively, the rebound and upward move should continue in the short term, with a target at 101.6;
- If it breaks below 100.1 support effectively, the bearish structure opens up, and the downside target is 99.5.
On Friday, the DXY probed the low and then rebounded to close bullish, entering a short-term corrective rebound phase. On Monday, focus on the small range of 100.3—100.8. Unless there is an effective breakout, simply trade back and forth according to the range highs and lows.

II. Detailed interpretation of gold price action
1) Weekly trend over the long cycle
Gold’s overall volatility this week was limited, and the weekly chart closed bearish with a lower shadow. It’s clear on the chart that bears repeatedly pressed down to test the low area, but the rebound/absorption strength at the lower levels is extremely strong. The support at 3942, the prior low, remains effective, meaning the overall downside room has been effectively compressed. Next week’s overall rhythm is likely to be weak and range-bound, but remember: as long as the low is not broken, don’t aggressively chase shorts. Going forward, there are two main scenarios:
1) If the bears gain volume and break 3942 to the downside, a new round of decline begins. For medium-term low-level long positioning, focus on the 3887—3830 area;
2) If support is defended and not broken, price will continue to maintain a broad range of 3940—4200, with repeated back-and-forth “washing” moves.
To fully reverse the bearish trend, a clear signal must appear: either a rapid selloff followed by a quick recovery of the lows, or the price successfully holds above the two major key levels of 4100 and 4200.
Combining the weekly structure and fund rhythm: buying is favored when stabilizing near 3940 at low levels; shorting is favored when price hits 4100-4200 and faces resistance at high levels. Once it successfully holds above 4200, the bulls’ trend is fully formed, and there is still more than 100-point upward room afterward.
2) Daily short-term rhythm
On Friday, gold completed a probe-and-rebound, then after pulling back to 3959 it quickly regained lost ground, with the daily candle closing bullish. In the short term, it formed a rebound repair pattern, and on Monday it is highly likely to continue with a modest upward pace. Daily key levels to reference:
- Strong support below: 3977
- Strong resistance above: 4060
3) Hourly chart: the bulls-bears turning point
The key intraday line to watch is 4002. For Monday’s overall setup: if 4002 holds, the bulls have the short-term advantage. If it holds above 4008, the rebound strength will continue to increase.
For the short term, first look at 4025. Once it stabilizes, watch the trend resistance area near 4043. If it stalls and struggles under 4043, you can reverse to take a short position, targeting around 4060. Once there is a strong breakout above the trend resistance, rebound room opens up completely, and you can follow the trend to look at 4100—4150—4180.

Gold’s trading idea for Monday:
- First pull back within 3990—4002, then go long after stabilization;
- First push up into the 4043—4060 resistance zone, and short if it meets resistance;
For other levels, flexibly manage based on the multi-timeframe structure.

III. Oil market analysis
Supported by a favorable geopolitical backdrop, oil closed bullish on the weekly chart this week, and bullish momentum continues to release. Next week still has a probability of pushing higher to refresh highs.
The ideal long entries at low levels are around 76. If price does not pull back deeply, then any pullback toward the 79 area can be used to follow longs. The first short-term target is 82. If it breaks out effectively, continue to look at the high-range zone of 85—88. After facing resistance at high levels, set up a reverse short.
On Friday, oil’s daily candle closed bullish, and the short-term bulls are strong. A conservative strategy: go long on a pullback at 80.5. In a strong trend: around 81, follow longs directly. In a ranging market: set longs at the 79 low, aiming at 82-83; if it breaks out, continue holding to expand profits.

The above analysis is for reference only! $XAUUSD ‌