Opta’s supercomputer tells you—Spain has a 45% win rate, Argentina 26%, but who dares to underestimate the defending champions?

Brothers, the final is here! Opta’s supercomputer ran 25,000 simulations, and the result is—Spain’s probability of winning within 90 minutes is 45%, with a draw at 29%, while Argentina is only 26%. In terms of overall title odds, Spain is 59.6%, and Argentina is 40.4%.

Spain is definitely the favorite, but nearly 30% of people think a winner can’t be decided within 90 minutes. This is a true showdown at the summit—whoever wins won’t be considered an upset.

Why is Spain being favored? In 7 matches, they conceded just 1 goal, tying the record for the fewest goals conceded in a single World Cup since 1966. In the semi-final, they won 2-0, leaving Mbappé with 0 shots on target for the entire game. They’ve gone unbeaten in regular time for 37 straight matches. Their defense is so “absurd” it’s hard to believe.

Why isn’t Argentina being doubted, even after making it this far? They scored 19 goals in 7 matches, the most by any team in this tournament. In the semi-final against England, with 85 minutes played they were down 0-1, but in the last 7 minutes they scored twice to complete the comeback. Against Egypt, they were down 0-2 at one point, but in the final 13 minutes they scored three straight to pull level. This Argentina has never accepted defeat—has never given up.

When the most solid shield meets the sharpest spear, when 37 matches unbeaten meet a comeback gene—who dares to say this final is a sure win?

#预测世界杯西班牙VS阿根廷