Three weeks ago, SPCX’s short interest was 5–7% of the float, about 40 million shares.

Today: 29%, 185 million shares, with $25 billion in short bets.
From 5% to 29% in three weeks—this is the fastest accumulation of a short position among newly listed stocks in U.S. stock market history.
The trigger is an overlay of factors: Starship V3’s test flight on July 16 was canceled—the two Raptor engines failed to ignite, and the system automatically aborted; SPCX on the same day first broke below its IPO price of $135, and is now around $131; the stock is down 44% from its $225.64 peak.
Economist Peter Schiff said on X: "SPCX is already 6.5% below the IPO price—down 44% from the high—and the main lock-up period hasn’t even expired yet—by year-end, the float could expand by 8 times. Houston, we have a problem."
But there’s a mathematical counter-logic here that Wall Street has already noticed:
For every $1 move in price, it means roughly a $200 million gain/loss swing for holders of the 29% short position. Once any “good enough” catalyst appears—such as the next successful Starship launch, or a Q2 earnings report (expected in early August) that beats expectations—the force pushing shorts to cover will drive the price higher, triggering more short covering, forming a cycle.
27 analysts gave buy ratings, with an average target price of $244.50, about 86% upside from the current price. The lowest target price is $62.
The math on both sides checks out: shorts have the supply logic as lock-ups end, and longs have the mechanical logic for a squeeze.
The early-August earnings report is the key SPCX timeline to watch most this year.
$SPCXB