The Bitcoin bear market has lasted for about 9 months, and the market may be entering its final stage.

On-chain data shows that the cost basis of short-term holders (STH) has fallen below the cost basis of long-term holders (LTH), and it has completed confirmation for 3 consecutive days; this indicator officially triggers the signal that the bear market is nearing its end.
Notably, when calculating the LTH cost basis, the metric excludes BTC held for more than 7 years to more accurately reflect the cost basis of long-term positions that are still economically active.
However, this does not mean the bear market is already over, nor does it mean the market bottom has been fully confirmed; instead, it suggests that the market may be in the final stage of the bear market. During this period, a DCA strategy may offer better cost-effectiveness than frequent timing trades.
In addition, Darkfost said that if, in the future, the STH cost basis breaks upward above the LTH cost basis again, it can be viewed as an important confirmation signal for the start of a bull market, and it can also serve as a reference point for ending DCA.
Currently, the STH cost basis has fallen from $112,500 to $69,000, indicating that this market cycle has already completed a significant cost reshuffling; it is worth continuing to monitor subsequent changes in the cost basis.