$XAU ‌Judging from the weekly chart, gold has posted two consecutive weeks of bearish closes. It is currently firmly under all moving averages, and the bearish trend has not changed. Last week, the gold price’s low touched $3,959. After a rebound on Friday, it closed at $4,017. The $4,000 psychological level has become a short-term line in the sand for bulls and bears. However, the recent rebound strength is weak; it is more of a technical correction and is not enough to constitute a trend reversal.

On key levels, the first resistance overhead is in the $4,030 to $4,040 area—around last week’s rebound high. If price continues to strengthen, watch $4,070 to $4,080, where the 20-day moving average sits. The first major support is at $3,950 to $3,970, near last week’s low. If that breaks, then look to $3,940—the lower bound of the recent two-month consolidation range. Below that are the static support levels at $3,880 to $3,900.

For next week’s outlook, it is likely to remain a weak, range-bound pattern. Gold may oscillate back and forth between $3,950 and $4,050, with no clear direction, mainly trading around the $4,000 level. But it is also important to watch for the risk of a breakdown lower. If geopolitical tensions ease (for example, a cooling of Strait of Hormuz concerns), or if U.S. economic data is strong enough to push the dollar higher, gold could break below $3,940 effectively, and then slide toward $3,880 or even lower. Another low-probability scenario is an oversold rebound; however, that would require a sudden risk-off catalyst or U.S. PMI coming in far below expectations. For that to be confirmed as a turn to strength, gold would need to at least regain and hold above $4,070.

Next week, there are two things to focus on: first, the latest developments in the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, which could directly affect Monday’s open; second, the initial U.S. July PMI figure released on Friday, which will become an important trigger for near-term directional choice.

Overall, gold’s trend next week is still bearish. In terms of trading, the approach should mainly be selling rallies. Long positions are only suggested to be tested with light exposure near key support levels, and once there is an effective breakdown below $3,940, you should promptly cut losses and exit. It is not advisable to rush to bottom-fish below $4,000; wait for clearer signals.

The analysis above is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. The market is risky, and decisions should be made with caution.