#夏日创作营 Approaching $65,000! Multiple Bitcoin signals undergo a sudden shift: the end of the bear market is confirmed—has the mid-term reversal window opened?

The crypto market is entering a crucial turning point!
After the earlier period of prolonged sideway grinding and extreme panic in sentiment, Bitcoin has delivered a structural rebound with the price steadily rising again, coming back to test the key $65,000 resistance level.
Latest data at time of writing: Bitcoin is currently quoted at $64,778.30, with the 24-hour high at $64,906.4 and the low at $63,886.65. Intraday volatility has tightened, the focus is steadily moving upward, and the market has exited into a strong repair structure overall.
Since rebounding from the $58,559 low on June 30, Bitcoin has gained more than 11% cumulatively. It has successfully held above the short- and mid-term moving average systems. Technically, the bullish signals are clear. However, the current market trend is highly controversial: spot trading volume remains sluggish and the market is still stuck in the panic range, yet on-chain core indicators, institutional holdings, and cycle signals have all warmed up. Analysts are even bold in forecasting that the peak of this cycle will reach $300k–$270k. Is the rebound just a continuation of the downtrend, or has the bear market truly ended and a new bull run started? This article combines the latest market data + market sentiment + on-chain signals + institutional views + fund flow to fully dissect Bitcoin’s true current setup and clarify the logic behind its future price moves.

Key takeaways
Price structure: Bitcoin has held above both short- and long-term moving averages, approaching the $65,000 resistance level, and a short-term strong repair uptrend has been established;
Market contradiction: trading volume keeps shrinking and sentiment has not fully recovered, but on-chain cycle signals, major-actor accumulation, and fund inflows have all turned positive;
Cycle turning point: multiple authoritative on-chain indicators confirm that the 9-month bear market is very likely entering its final stage—the worst period is already behind us;
Long-term value: Bitcoin’s high-quality store-of-value attribute is recognized by institutions; there may be no cycle top before 2029, and ample upside space remains in the longer term;
Outlook: short-term pressure leads to range consolidation to build momentum, the mid-term reversal window opens, and the repair trend continues relying on the key $62,489 support.

01、Latest market recap: consolidation lifting, strong breakout of key technical levels
Recently, Bitcoin has shown a classic pattern of bearish catalysts being neutralized and a steady upward lift. It has completely escaped the prior down-slow sideway structure, completing multiple key technical breakouts.
Market data
✅ Current price: $64,778.30
✅ 24H high: $64,906.4
✅ 24H low: $63,886.65
✅ Recent rebound magnitude: up more than 11% from the June 30 low of $58,559
✅ Weekly performance: up 1.5% over the past week, outperforming most major coins against the trend
Technical highlights: the current price has successfully reclaimed both the 7-day and 30-day moving averages—this is the first clear bullish technical signal in recent history and has completely reversed the weak mid-term pattern.
The core driver behind this rebound comes from macro positives: the latest U.S. inflation data came in below market expectations, greatly easing market concerns about the Fed’s continued hawkish rate hikes. Risk assets’ overall valuations have been repaired, providing solid macro support for Bitcoin.

02、The biggest contradiction in the market right now: weak sentiment and volume, core cycle signals turning
The crypto market is currently in a typical turning-point phase where sentiment lags and fundamentals lead. The battle between bulls and bears is extremely intense, and two opposing sets of data reveal the real picture today.
🔴 Bear-side suppression: trading volume keeps collapsing; market sentiment has not fully recovered
The first major suppressor: spot trading volume has remained subdued and market interaction has grown extremely quiet. According to the latest data from GSR research head Frank Chaparro: the 7-day moving average of daily spot trading volume on centralized exchanges is only $21.4 billion, down nearly 80% from the stage high of $104.3 billion in October 2025. From the trend perspective, since the fourth quarter of last year, spot trading volumes have been steadily trending down overall. Two brief upticks at the beginning and mid-point of this year failed to sustain. The lack of incremental capital and subdued retail participation are the core weak links constraining any sustained upside lift.
The second major suppressor: market sentiment is still in the panic range.
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index for crypto has risen to 28, slightly improving from yesterday’s 25 of extreme fear, but it remains in the panic range. Overall market confidence has not fully returned, and the desire to chase rallies is weak.
🟢 Bull-side support: multiple on-chain signals are confirmed; compared with the cold and quiet tape, on-chain core data already reversed early. Multiple authoritative signals point to this conclusion: the worst stage of this 9-month bear market is already over.
A CryptoQuant core turning-point signal has appeared: the cost basis of short-term holders has moved below the cost basis of long-term holders. The short-term holders’ cost basis has sharply fallen from $112,500 to below $69,000. This classic on-chain indicator has historically corresponded multiple times to the bottoming phase at the end of bear markets and before bull market starts.
At the same time, major capital is quietly positioning: within two weeks, Bitcoin large holders have accumulated more than 270k BTC, with a total value of about $16.7 billion. Whales continue to stockpile at low levels, fully showing that institutional major players have already recognized the value at current low levels.
Fund flows are also warming up in parallel: although the June U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded the worst monthly outflow since its launch—$4.06 billion in redemptions—July saw a rapid repair. Net inflows reached $264.4 million, with the institutional outflow wave ending and a phase of fund returning beginning.

03、Major institutional views: Bitcoin’s value is re-priced, and long-dated upside is fully opened
As bear-market end signals keep landing, the market’s understanding of Bitcoin’s value is being reshaped again, with top analysts offering highly optimistic long-range forecasts.
Cointelegraph analyst stated clearly: Bitcoin is one of the best value store options in the current market. Its scarcity, anti-inflation attributes, and decentralization characteristics continue to stand out. From a cycle perspective, this cycle’s Bitcoin top has not arrived yet; it will not reach this cycle’s highest point before the end of 2029. The reasonable long-term valuation range could be as high as $250k–$300k. This implies that today’s $60k+ price is still in the cycle bottom repair stage, with extremely ample room for long-term upside.
In addition, the recent market buzz about a movement of U.S. government wallets is also worth watching: relevant government wallets transferred about $244 million worth of confiscated Bitcoin to Coinb Prime, sparking speculation about sell pressure. But the official response was clear that it was only routine custody operations. Short-term downside pressure risks have materialized, and the negative impact has been fully digested.

04、Short-, mid-, and long-term trend outlook
Short term (1–2 weeks): pressure-led consolidation and building momentum. Bitcoin is likely to work toward a breakthrough of the key pressure zone it is currently approaching at $65,000–$66,000. With insufficient spot liquidity and relatively cautious market sentiment, a strong direct breakout is unlikely in the near term; it is more likely to enter a consolidation-and-rotation phase for trading. Downside key support is firmly set at $62,489. As long as this support is not broken, the repair structure at the end of the bear market will not be damaged, and the overall pattern of consolidation biased upward will remain unchanged.
Medium term (1–3 months): the end of the bear market is confirmed, and the reversal setup gradually unfolds. Four logic pieces move in sync: multiple on-chain turning-point signals, whales continuing to accumulate, ETF funds returning, and macro pressure easing. This confirms that the market is in the final bottoming stage of the 9-month bear market. Short-term sentiment and the volume shortfall will gradually be repaired. As the market’s selling pressure is exhausted and incremental capital slowly enters, Bitcoin will gradually break above the resistance levels and begin a mid-term valuation repair trend, fully escaping the bottom consolidation range.
Long term (annual horizon): store-of-value value stands out, and long-dated highs are worth期待. The long-cycle logic is already clear: Bitcoin’s bear market is彻底 over, and the uptrend of the next cycle is being gradually prepared. Supported by scarcity store-of-value attributes, continuous institutional positioning, and cycle regularities, the value re-pricing logic of $250k–$300k in 2029’s long-term timeframe will gradually be realized, and the current position has very high mid- to long-term allocation value.

05、Trading core ideas and key levels
Short-term strategy: don’t chase after price spikes. Use the $62,500–$63,000 support for low-buy game. Take profit in batches in the $65,000–$66,000 resistance zone. In a range-bound market, focus on band trading arbitrage.
Mid-term strategy: you are currently in the golden bottoming range at the end of the bear market. There’s no need to panic-sell. Hold firmly with low-level chips and patiently wait for trend breakout confirmation to capture the full mid-term repair move.

Core key ranges
Strong support: $62,489 (the lifeline of the bear-market repair structure)
Strong resistance: $65,000–$66,000 (key resistance area for a short-term breakout)

06、Risk warnings
Risk of sustained insufficient liquidity: spot trading volume remains lackluster, incremental capital is scarce, causing long-term consolidation and weak breakout capability;
Macro policy risk: U.S. inflation keeps rebounding and the Fed’s monetary policy turns hawkish again, weighing on the overall performance of risk assets;
Risk of repeated short-term sentiment swings: the market is still in the panic range, sentiment is fragile, and short-term sharp selloff washouts are likely;
Risk of sell pressure from major actors: large-wallet anomalies and short-term institutional fund outflows can trigger volatility in the tape.

Has the Bitcoin bear market already completely ended? Can the $65,000 level break through smoothly? Share your views in the comments!$BTC ‌