An Introductory Analysis of BTC Short-Term Price Action from Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationships, Order Flow, and Price Action

$BTC ‌#BTC 1. Dow Theory
Primary trend (1-hour timeframe): Since the historical high on May 6 at 82,814, the main downtrend has continued. The price fell from 82,814 to the secondary high on June 1 at 73,975, then to the rebound high on June 15 at 67,254, and continued down to the low on July 1 at 57,721, for a cumulative drop of 25,093. After the low on July 1 was tested, the bulls展开 an ABC rebound (A wave 64,597 → B wave 61,470 → C wave 64,660). After the C wave ended, the price retreated to the low on July 13 at 61,750. On July 14-15, a V-shaped reversal appeared, and the price surged to 65,510 (a new high since July). But on July 16-17, there were consecutive sharp drops: from 65,510 it crashed to 62,462 at 13:30 on July 17, fully giving back all the gains from July 14-15, and also setting a new low since July 13. On July 18, a strong rebound occurred: from the low at 63,842 at 01:00 on July 18, it rose to 64,825 at 22:00, for a full-day gain of about 983, fully recovering the drop from July 16. Current price is 64,749, below the July 15 high of 65,510. The market is in a stage of contesting a key resistance zone. The primary trend may be shifting from a deep decline to a recovery phase after forming a base.
Short-term trend (15-minute timeframe): Since the low at 62,462 at 13:30 on July 17, the short-term uptrend has been extremely strong. The short-term lows have moved up from 62,462 (7-17 13:30) → 63,842 (7-18 01:00) → 64,042 (7-18 07:00) → 64,200 (7-18 12:00) → 64,350 (7-18 15:00) → 64,500 (7-18 18:00), showing a strong “lows continue to rise” pattern. The short-term highs moved from 64,353 (7-17 18:45) to break through at 64,825 (7-18 22:00), making a new high since July 17. In the late session on July 18, the price pulled back from 64,825 to 64,749; the retracement was only 76, which is normal consolidation after a breakout.
Dow conclusion: The primary trend may be undergoing a reversal, and the breakout with increased volume on July 18 is the key signal. The short-term trend has entered a strong up phase. 64,000-64,500 is the core short-term support, and 65,000-65,500 is the key short-term resistance. If price can hold above 65,000 and break 65,500, it will open upside room of 66,500-67,500; if it fails and drops below 64,000, the rebound may end and the market may return to a 63,000-62,000 correction.
2. Chan Theory
Fractal structure: On the 15-minute timeframe:
Bottom fractal: At 13:30 on July 17, a strong bottom fractal formed at 62,462, followed by a sustained rebound. On July 18, multiple bottom fractals kept moving higher, showing strong bull-side follow-through.
Top fractal: A top fractal formed at 18:45 on July 17 at 64,353, but the subsequent pullback was limited (the low was 62,462). A new top fractal formed at 22:00 on July 18 at 64,825, but the pullback was only 76 (the low was 64,749), indicating extremely strong bull-side follow-through.
Bi (strokes) and segments:
From the bottom fractal at 62,462 to the top fractal at 64,353 (July 17), forming an upward stroke, with a rise of about 1,892, with strong strength.
From the top fractal at 64,353 to the bottom fractal at 62,462 (July 17 at 13:30), forming a downward stroke, with a drop of about 1,892, with extremely strong force.
From the bottom fractal at 62,462 to the top fractal at 64,825 (July 18 at 22:00), forming an upward stroke, with a rise of about 2,363, with extremely strong force.
From the top fractal at 64,825 to the bottom fractal at 64,749 (July 19 at 00:45), forming a downward stroke, with a decline of only 76, with very weak force.
Central region (Zhongshu):
The former downtrend central zone 62,500-64,000 has been fully broken upward and has become a strong support below.
A new rising central zone is being built in the 64,000-65,000 range. The July 18 candlesticks densely overlapped within this range. Current price 64,749 is slightly above the middle-high area inside this central zone, indicating a strong consolidation posture.
A new pressure central zone above is forming in the 65,000-65,500 range.
Chan conclusion: The upward stroke has extremely strong force (+2,363) and the downward stroke is extremely weak (-76), indicating bulls completely dominate. The former downtrend central zone has been broken upward, and the new rising central zone is being formed. In the short term, watch whether a valid bottom fractal support can form around 64,000-64,500; if it forms, the upward stroke may restart the push toward 65,500. If price directly breaks below 64,000, the rebound may end, with targets of 63,000-62,500.
3. Elliott Wave Theory
Based on a 1-hour swing structure, re-label the走势 since the May 6 high of 82,814:
Higher-degree five-wave decline (completed):
1 wave: 82,814 → 78,500 (May 7), a move of about -4,300
2 wave: 78,500 → 81,051 (May 10), a move of about +2,551
3 wave: 81,051 → 59,095 (June 5), a move of about -21,956 (the main down wave)
4 wave: 59,095 → 67,247 (June 15), a move of about +8,152
5 wave: 67,247 → 57,721 (July 1), a move of about -9,526
ABC rebound correction (has evolved into a more complex structure):
A wave: 57,721 → 64,597 (July 6), a move of +6,876
B wave: 64,597 → 61,470 (July 8), a move of -3,127
C wave: 61,470 → 64,660 (July 10), a move of +3,190 (C wave ends)
X wave (correction): 64,660 → 61,750 (July 13), a move of -2,910
A new round of rising waves (in progress):
1 wave (new): 61,750 → 65,510 (July 15), a move of +3,760, with strong strength
2 wave pullback: 65,510 → 62,462 (July 17), a move of -3,048, and the pullback magnitude is 80.5%, far beyond the normal 2-wave pullback range
3 wave (current): 62,462 → 64,825 (July 18), a move of +2,363, with strong strength
Wave conclusion: Currently, price may be in the 3rd wave stage of a new up cycle. The 1st wave rise of 3,760 had strong momentum, and the 2nd wave pullback of 3,048 (80.5% in proportion) is too deep, but the 3rd wave has already started and has strong force (+2,363). If the 3rd wave can break above the 1st wave high of 65,510, it would confirm that the 5-wave rising structure is valid, with targets of 67,000-68,000. If the 3rd wave is rejected in the 65,000-65,500 area and falls back, the rising structure may fail again.
4. Volume-Price Analysis
Overall volume-price characteristics: During the July 1 crash phase, there was a very clear “increased volume” feature. From July 1-10, during the rebound phase, volume expanded moderately. From July 10-13, the pullback came with reduced volume. On July 14-15, there was a breakout with increased volume, and volume-price coordination was positive. On July 16-17, a heavy-volume crash occurred, falling from around 65,000 to 62,462. On July 18, a strong rebound occurred: from 63,842 to 64,825, with moderately increased volume, showing orderly entry from long-side capital. In the late session on July 18, as price fell from 64,825 to 64,749, volume shrank, indicating limited sell pressure. Overall, it presents a positive volume-price combination of “crash with volume expansion + base-building with volume contraction + rebound with volume expansion + consolidation with volume contraction.”
Key volume-price nodes:
At 18:15 on July 13, reduced volume halted the down move (volume only 155 million), forming a phase bottom at 61,750.
At 12:00 on July 14, a high-volume bullish candle appeared (volume around 195 million); price surged from 62,784 to 63,888, confirming that the bulls’ counterattack had begun.
At 12:30 on July 15, a “huge volume” bullish candle appeared (volume around 486 million); price pushed up from 64,664 to 64,876, confirming the start of the 3rd wave.
At 08:30 on July 16, a high-volume bearish candle appeared (volume around 6.88T); price crashed from 64,089 to 63,834, confirming that the bears began a counterattack.
At 13:30 on July 17, a high-volume bearish candle appeared (volume around 437 million); price crashed from 62,828 to 62,462, confirming the stage low.
At 12:00 on July 18, a high-volume bullish candle appeared (volume around 382 million); price rose from 64,042 to 64,200, confirming that the rebound started.
At 22:00 on July 18, a high-volume bullish candle appeared (volume around 370 million); price pushed up from 64,692 to 64,825, confirming the start of the 3rd wave.
Recent volume-price state: From the late session on July 18 to the early hours of July 19, volume clearly contracted. Price consolidated narrowly in the 64,700-64,800 range, which is normal digestion after a breakout.
Volume-price conclusion: After the high-volume breakout on July 18, volume-price coordination is good. Key observation points: If the pullback reaches 64,000-64,500 with reduced volume and stops falling, the 3rd wave may continue; if price breaks down below 64,000 with increased volume, the rebound ends.
5. Order Flow
成交量分布 (Volume Profile): In the recent 5 days (July 15-19), the volume control point (POC) is at 64,013. Current price 64,749 is about 736 above the POC, indicating the market is in a premium state above the value area (Above Value).
Current position analysis: Price 64,749 is above POC 64,013, meaning it is above the value area. The Value Area is 63,386-64,787. Current price is near the upper edge of the Value Area (64,787), showing a short-term buyer advantage. The lower edge of the Value Area, 63,386, is short-term support, and 64,787 is short-term resistance.
High volume nodes (HVN):
65,000-65,500: Upper resistance HVN (a dense-trading zone on July 15; current strong resistance)
64,000-64,500: Core support HVN (dense-trading zone on July 18; current strong support)
62,000-63,000: Lower support HVN (dense-trading zone on July 16-17; already converted to support)
59,000-60,000: Extreme support HVN (dense-trading zone on July 1)
Delta analysis: During the July 18 rebound, Delta turned significantly positive (+4 billion level), confirming active buy dominance. Current Delta MA12 turned clearly positive from near the zero axis (+0.25 billion), showing buyer power fully dominates and seller power has noticeably weakened.
Order flow conclusion: Price is above POC 64,013, giving a short-term buyer advantage. 65,000 and 65,500 above are two key HVN resistance levels, while 64,000 and 64,500 below are two key HVN support levels. If Delta stays positive and price stops falling with reduced volume in the 64,000-64,500 area, the 3rd wave may continue. If Delta turns deeply negative again and price breaks below 64,000, the rebound ends.
6. Price Action
Support and resistance levels:
Strong resistances: 82,814 (phase high), 73,975 (June 1 high), 67,500 (June 15 rebound high), 65,510 (July 15 high)
Key resistances: 66,000 (psychological level), 65,500 (the July 15 high-rejection area), 65,000 (psychological level)
Key supports: 64,500 (the upper edge of the July 18 consolidation area), 64,000 (the line dividing bulls and bears), 63,500 (the July 18 breakout zone), 63,842 (July 18 low), 62,462 (July 17 crash low), 61,750 (July 13 low), 57,721 (July 1 crash low)
Candlestick patterns:
At 18:15 on July 13, a candlestick with a long lower wick appeared, forming the “hammer” bottom pattern at 61,750.
At 12:00 on July 14, a big bullish candle appeared (body about +1,104). Price surged from 62,784 to 63,888, forming a “breakout bullish candle” pattern.
At 13:15 on July 15, a candlestick with a long upper wick appeared (upper wick about 300). After pushing from 65,200 to 65,510, it pulled back, forming a “evening star” bearish pattern.
At 13:30 on July 17, a large bearish candlestick with a long lower wick appeared (body about -329, lower wick about 366). After crashing from 62,828 to 62,462, it bounced to 62,871, forming another “hammer” bottom pattern.
At 22:00 on July 18, a big bullish candle appeared (body about +133). Price pushed from 64,692 to 64,825, forming a “breakout bullish candle” pattern.
Trend structure:
Short term: An upward channel since the 62,462 low on July 17 is forming. The lower track support is around 63,500, and the upper track resistance is around 65,500.
Medium term: The downtrend line since the May 6 high of 82,814 has been broken, and price has moved above that trend line.
Price action conclusion: In the short term, price is in the 3rd wave stage of a new up cycle. 64,000-64,500 is the bulls’ defense line in the short term, and 65,000-65,500 is the line dividing bulls and bears: a breakout opens 66,500-67,500 upside space; if 64,000 is lost, the pullback will likely revisit 63,000-62,500.
Comprehensive Judgment
Dow Theory suggests signals that the primary trend may be turning, and the high-volume breakout above 64,500 on July 18 is the key turning point. Chan Theory shows an extremely strong upward stroke (+2,363) and a very weak downward stroke (-76), meaning bulls fully dominate. Elliott Wave Theory suggests the market may be in the 3rd wave stage of a new up cycle, with strong momentum (+2,363). The volume-price relationship shows a positive combination of “pullback with reduced volume + breakout with expanded volume + consolidation with reduced volume.” Order flow shows POC at 64,013 and price is in a premium state, with Delta MA12 turning strongly positive. Price action shows a “breakout bullish candle” pattern, with short-term bulls in control.
Short-term strategy suggestions:
Bullish scenario: If price around 64,000-64,500 shows reduced volume stopping the selloff + a bottom fractal + Delta turning positive, you can go long. Targets: 65,000 → 65,500 → 66,500. Stop-loss: 63,500.
Bearish scenario: If the rebound reaches around 65,000-65,200 and a top fractal appears along with increased-volume selloff, confirming that the 65,500 resistance is effective, you can short. Targets: 64,000 → 63,500. Stop-loss: 65,700.
Current state: At 64,749, price is in the consolidation zone after the 3rd wave breakout, with short-term bulls dominating. It is recommended to wait for a pullback to 64,000-64,500 to confirm support before going long, or wait for a breakout above 65,500 to confirm 3rd-wave continuation and then chase.