I just went through the data on stablecoin supply and ETF inflows, and at first glance it really does seem encouraging—like over-the-counter funds are lining up to get in. But honestly, the correlation and causation are far apart here: more supply might just mean arbitrageurs are moving coins around, and net ETF inflows don’t necessarily mean retail investors are pouring in real money. Anyway, I’ve been watching on-chain active wallet count a bit more than I’ve been watching price lately—whether the money moved or not, the data is more honest than the candlesticks.

The modular blockchain narrative is all the rage in developer circles, but when I ask my friends who don’t trade crypto at all, I mostly get expressions like “What? Blockchain can be split up?” This contrast is pretty interesting; maybe you can turn it into a mini “what if” pixel drama series, with a title like “Developer Celebration vs User Confusion.”

As for trusting data versus trusting instincts, I trust data more. Data can lie, but it won’t lie to itself; instincts… in eight out of ten cases, it’s just self-soothing 😂