I just saw someone say stablecoin supply has gone up, and ETF net inflows are also positive, but on-chain it’s still not moving—feels like the logic is broken. Actually, correlation and causation are two different things. The off-exchange money has too complex an entry path; a lot of it is just rotating within arbitrage structures and never really gets into the spot pool. I’ve been watching the depth of a few AMMs lately and noticed that while supply has increased, liquidity distribution is more scattered. Basically, the money isn’t getting concentrated in one place.

Also, privacy coins have been getting a lot of noise lately—where exactly to draw the line between mixer protocols and compliance. Some people think the tools are not guilty, while others think they’ll be targeted sooner or later. When I do small strategies myself, I don’t really touch this kind of thing. It’s not because I don’t want to; it’s because compliance costs keep crossing my mind and making it a headache.

As for the word “long-term,” I define it in a pretty down-to-earth way—three months counts as a long-term position. For me, being able to reliably harvest an arbitrage opportunity for three months already counts as a big cycle. After that, there are too many uncertainties; it’s either bear or bull. Either way, I can’t be bothered to gamble. Don’t treat “long-term” as a belief—just think of it as an accounting period.