#夏日创作营 ARK Invest: Divergence between BTC price drop and whale accumulation, market shows signals of a cycle bottom

On July 17, Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest released its latest edition of The Bitcoin Quarterly Q2 2026 report, pointing out that Bitcoin fell by about 14% in the second quarter, with the closing price at roughly $58,544 at quarter-end—breaking below all major price benchmarks, including the realized price of short-term holders at $70,327, the 200-day moving average at $75,371, and the on-chain average cost basis at $76,660. ARK Invest used “seller exhaustion” to describe the current market condition in the report, while warning that the Bitcoin Depositary (DAT) company is facing worsening financing pressure.
Prices are down, but long-term holders keep adding against the trend
The most eye-catching set of data in the report shows a clear divergence between price and the chip (position) structure. Long-term holders of Bitcoin—those holding at least 155 days—had their holdings rise to a record high of 14.85 million BTC by the end of Q2, up by about 310,000 BTC from the end of Q1. This means that while prices are down 14%, long-term holders are absorbing sell-offs from short-term investors. ARK Invest views this combination of “prices falling but strong hands continuously increasing holdings” as a signal that the market is internally redistributing coins, rather than a simple selling panic.
On-chain data also releases signals approaching a cycle bottom: the share of Bitcoin supply in a loss state rose to about 54%, the first time in history it exceeded the 46% of profitable supply. Realized losses briefly surpassed realized gains, compressing the profit/loss ratio to about 0.82.
ARK Invest noted that the combination of “loss supply exceeding profit supply” together with “loss speed outpacing profit-taking speed” historically tends to cluster near the bottom of market cycles or around the capitulation phase. Notably, despite price pressure, realized volatility has stayed relatively mild, reflecting a market structure that is more mature and orderly than in earlier cycles.
Clear cracks on the institutional side
If the on-chain data delivers a somewhat optimistic signal, the institutional-level data is clearly bearish. STRC preferred shares under Strategy fell sharply at one point from a $100 par value to about $74.57 at the end of June, and closed around $85 at quarter-end. ARK Invest believes that the persistent discount to par value reflects worsening financing conditions for Bitcoin reserve companies, and that rising financing costs may limit their ability to keep accumulating Bitcoin in the future.
Meanwhile, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows for seven straight weeks in Q2, with a cumulative outflow of about 70k BTC—marking the first time since these ETF products launched that such a sustained outflow cycle has occurred. ARK Invest believes that ETF outflows are weakening an important marginal bid source that had long supported Bitcoin’s price. However, the report also mentions a relatively neutral signal: the three-month futures basis remains at around a small positive 2.3%, and has not flipped into backwardation, suggesting that the derivatives market has not shown panic-driven bearish sentiment.
How to interpret this “divergence”
Putting these data points together, ARK Invest’s picture is not simply a “bear market” or “bull market,” but a typical feature of a cycle turning point: weak price performance, a clear retreat in institutional marginal buying (ETFs, DAT companies), yet at the same time the most steadfast on-chain holders are adding against the trend, the share of loss-making coins hits a cycle high, and sell-side sentiment is near the edge of exhaustion.
ARK Invest emphasizes that historical data shows this combination—“a clear divergence between price action and long-term holder behavior”—often becomes an important observation signal for turning points in market cycles. But the report also cautions that this is only reference based on historical规律, and it does not mean the bottom has been confirmed.
Things that need to be viewed rationally
Any single institutional report has limitations in its analytical framework. On-chain data reflects “facts that have already happened,” and cannot guarantee that the same pattern will repeat in this cycle. ETF outflows and worsening financing pressure for DAT companies suggest that institutional confidence may still take time to recover; it is not something a single report can immediately reverse.
For retail investors, this report provides more of an “observation framework”—the proportions of profitable/loss supply, changes in long-term holders’ positions, and ETF fund flows—rather than a buy/sell signal that can be applied directly. $BTC ‌