Large-scale bullish call spread trades on Deribit bet that Bitcoin will rise to $72k by the end of the month

Golden Finance reported on July 18 that, according to CoinDesk, this week the Deribit exchange saw large-scale bullish spread options trades on Bitcoin. Traders bought 20k call options expiring on July 31 with a strike price of $70,000, while simultaneously selling 20k call options expiring on the same date with a strike price of $72,000. In total, this involved 40,000 contracts with a notional value of approximately $2.5 billion. This strategy is a bull call spread, with the expectation that the Bitcoin price will rise moderately into the $70,000 to $72,000 range. Deribit’s Chief Business Officer Jean-David Péquignot said that this week he saw multiple large-scale bull call spread trades, which typically reflect institutional positioning.

The timing is worth noting: the July 31 expiry falls just two days after the July 29 Federal Reserve interest rate decision, suggesting that some large traders expect the Fed meeting to drive Bitcoin up to $72,000. Federal funds futures show a 75% to 80% probability that the July meeting will keep interest rates unchanged. June inflation data indicated that price pressures had significantly eased due to falling oil prices, but this week the escalation of the Iran–U.S. conflict pushed oil prices higher, leading some analysts to warn that inflation data may have lagged behind the latest situation.