$841 vs $$MU —would you dare to bottom-fish?

First, look at the surface: an epic earnings report, yet the stock price crashes
On June 25, the earnings report detonated: revenue was $41.6 billion, up 346% year over year, and EPS of $25.11 far beat expectations. Q4 guidance called for revenue of $50 billion, gross margin of 86%, and HBM capacity is fully sold out for the next two years. Then what? The stock plunged from 1255 straight down to 841, losing one-third
The weekly long-term trend is still rising, but the daily chart has formed a clear downward channel: consecutive high-volume bearish candles, and the RSI has entered the oversold zone. Near-term sentiment has hit rock bottom, but a trend reversal needs confirmation
First thing: the earnings crushed expectations, but “good news is already priced in” is Wall Street’s standard play
Revenue up 346%, gross margin skyrocketing from the lows to 86%. Management said: “AI memory shortage will continue through after 2027.” Sounds like a dream?
But take a closer look—on the day the report was released, it surged to 1255, then it started dropping immediately. Wall Street’s logic has always been “buy the expectations, sell the facts.” MU had already risen 10x before the earnings—locking in gains is the perfect time to unload
Second thing: macro headwinds, but AI isn’t a typical tech stock.
The new Fed chair Warsh is leaning hawkish; CPI year over year is 4.2%, and rate-hike expectations are heating up. High rates weigh on growth stocks, and the whole tech sector is under pressure. The market is starting to question the sustainability of AI capex—rumors of rotating from AI hardware to software have only made MU’s situation worse
NVIDIA GPUs can’t function without MU’s memory—that’s real demand, not something you can get around with “software optimization”
Third thing: a technical signal has appeared that you must pay attention to
High-volume selloff + RSI oversold + potential MACD bottom divergence—this is a classic “panic washout” structure. The weekly long-term uptrend channel hasn’t broken, and the 200-week moving average is still trending upward
If 840 can’t hold, the next stop is 800–820; then 780, even as low as 720
Key levels
Resistance overhead: 900–950 → 1000–1050 → 1100–1255
Support below: 800–820 → 780 → 720
For short-term traders:
Wait for a high-volume bullish candle to confirm the hold above 850, then try long again. Target 900–950; stop loss below 800. More aggressive traders: test long with a small position around 841, stop loss at 800, target 900–950
For swing traders:
Trade in batches: enter the first batch around 840, add a second batch below 820. Keep total position sizing within 10–20%. Stop loss at 780; target 1000–1100
For long-term believers:
The 800–850 zone is the golden dip for the AI super-cycle. Buy in 2–3 batches, target 1250–1500, and hold for 1–2 years.
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