SanDisk’s Recent Performance: From Peak to Deep Pullback

As of the close on July 17, SanDisk (SNDK) was at $1,354.82, down 3.99% on the day. During the session, it fell as low as $1,325.03 and rebounded at one point to $1,501.20. This week, the storage chip index dropped 16.7%, while SanDisk plunged 27.3% on a weekly basis, becoming the constituent stock with the largest decline in the segment. Since hitting a 52-week high of $2,354.39 on June 22, the stock has retreated about 42% from the peak. However, the year-to-date cumulative gain is still as high as about 470%.

Bull-Bear Logic: The Periodic Debate Heats Up

The bears argue that memory chips are a strong cyclical industry, and that current prices and earnings are at historical highs, which is not sustainable. TSMC announced a significant increase in annual capital expenditures to more than $6 billion, raising concerns in the market about an oversupply in the chip industry; Samsung and SK hynix’s production expansion plans could also pressure down NAND prices. In addition, much of SanDisk’s output is still sold through public markets, so if NAND prices fall, the uncontracted volume would be hit first.

The bulls, meanwhile, emphasize that AI-driven demand is structural growth. SanDisk’s fiscal year 2026 Q3 gross margin is as high as 78.35%, its balance sheet has zero debt, and it has initiated a $60B share repurchase. The company expects data centers to become the largest NAND market for the first time in 2026, and it has raised the growth expectation for data center bit demand to nearly 70%. The Q4 earnings guidance to be released on August 5 shows revenue is expected to be $7.75-8.25 billion, and non-GAAP EPS of $30-33, both far exceeding market expectations.

Institutional Views: Upgrades Out of Sync With Market Panic

Despite the ongoing selloff, multiple institutions have raised their price targets against the trend. Goldman Sachs lifted its target price from $1,200 to $2,200; Evercore ISI raised it to $3,100; Bernstein raised it to $3,000; and Bank of America raised it to $2,500. The institutional consensus rating is “outperforming the market,” with an average target price of about $1,418.

SanDisk is caught in a fierce tug-of-war between an “epic rally” and an急速回调. In the short term, the storage sector’s overhang and technical selling pressure may not be over yet. But the medium-to-long-term logic remains intact—AI infrastructure investment is still in the early stages, and the long-term contract model provides downside protection for profitability. The upcoming Q4 results on August 5 will be a crucial window to test whether this is a case of “forced selling” or a “cycle top.” #夏日创作营