As of the close on July 17, Micron Technology (MU) was $848.95, down 0.50% on the day. After an early dip of nearly 6% to a low of $804, it surged strongly and turned green, ultimately recouping most of its early-session losses. The intraday trading range was nearly $100—opened at $822.53, hit a high of $903.96, and bottomed at $804.00.

Looking at the broader cycle, Micron has gained about 230% since the start of the year, with a 629% increase over the past 52 weeks. However, since hitting an all-time high of $1,255 on June 25, the stock has pulled back by about 23%. Just this week, the memory chip index fell 16.7%, while Micron dropped 11.8% week over week.

The strongest weapon for the bulls is the fundamentals. In fiscal 2026 Q3, Micron revenue was $41.46 billion, up 345.7% year over year; net profit was $28.24 billion, nearly 14 times higher; gross margin reached 84.9%, the best among US-listed peers. The company expects fiscal Q4 revenue of $49.0–$51.0 billion, with gross margin rising further to 86%.

Meanwhile, Micron has signed 16 strategic customer agreements to lock in long-term supply, and has also entered long-term cooperation agreements with companies across the automotive supply chain such as Qualcomm and Harman. Management has clearly stated that the tight supply-demand situation for DRAM and NAND will continue beyond 2027.

The bears’ concerns also cannot be ignored. Micron’s forward P/E has been compressed to 9.2x—by valuing a company with revenue-growth momentum of over 50% using the valuation framework of cyclical stocks, the market reflects deep anxiety that the memory industry cycle may have peaked. The sector-wide selloff amplified by SK hynix’s 15% one-day plunge in the Korean market, along with Berkshire Hathaway’s sharp criticism of market speculation, further increases pressure on sentiment.

Wall Street analysts’ consensus rating is “Strong Buy,” with 45 analysts’ average target price at $1,486. KeyBanc raised its target price to $1,750, and Melius Research even set the highest Wall Street target at $2,200. Major institutions including Bank of America, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley collectively lifted target prices, ranging from $1,200 to $2,000.

Optimists believe the full-year HBM supply has already been sold out under fixed-price contracts, and a tight supply-demand landscape has been established. The cautious camp points out that the market has started shifting from “whether there is demand” to “whether expectations have already been priced in.”

Micron is currently caught in a fierce tug-of-war between a stellar earnings backdrop and valuation pressure. In the short term, geopolitical conflicts and the broader tech-sector selloff may still trigger sharp volatility, and its market cap has fallen below the $1 trillion threshold. But the medium- to long-term thesis remains intact: AI infrastructure investment is still in its early stage, and the $250 billion US expansion plan shows management’s confidence. The upcoming fiscal Q4 earnings report will be the key window to test whether this is a case of “being oversold” or “seeing it through.” #夏日创作营