I. Current gold trend: repeated tug-of-war around the $4,000 level

As of the week of July 18, COMEX gold futures closed at $4,023 per ounce, with a weekly decline of 2.56%, the largest weekly drop in six weeks. On Friday (July 17), spot gold rebounded from an intraday low of $3,959, then closed at $4,016.26, up 1.02% on the day. It took only two trading days for the key psychological level of $4,000 to go from breaking down to being reclaimed. In China, Shanghai Gold Exchange AU9999 was quoted at 872.1 yuan per gram.

II. The core contradictions entangled between bulls and bears

The primary factor weighing on gold prices is expectations of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. Since June, the Shanghai gold main contract has cumulatively fallen by more than 10%. The market broadly expects the Fed to raise rates at least once within the year, possibly in October. Meanwhile, the conflict between Iran and the U.S. has suddenly escalated, with geopolitical risk in the Strait of Hormuz heating up, adding a safe-haven premium to gold.

III. Significant divergence in institutional views

Bank of America’s technical team warned that the gold price has already formed multiple bearish signals, including a “death cross” and an RSI reaching 90, similar to the top formations in 1980 and 2011; if history repeats, gold could fall toward $3,315. However, DBS believes the recent pullback is merely short-term clearing by speculative funds, and that by year-end it could reach $5,300. Fidelity International also expects gold to return to a bull market in 2027.

Overall, gold is likely to remain in wide-range consolidation in the near term. $4,000 is the near-term line separating bulls and bears. If inflation stays relatively strong and rate-hike expectations heat up, it’s not ruled out that gold could probe again to $3,800 or even lower; however, medium- to long-term support from global central banks’ gold buying and the trend of de-dollarization remains in place. Investors should temper expectations for a one-way rise and wait patiently for the direction to become clear. #夏日创作营