That said, lately there has definitely been more activity in stablecoin supply and ETF inflow data. Some people have gone as far as drawing an equals sign and shouting, “The bull market is here,” but I think we shouldn’t get too excited. Correlation doesn’t equal causation. Macro liquidity, on-chain arbitrage, and even market makers adjusting their positions can all increase supply, which may not be the same thing as over-the-counter capital entering the market. In any case, I’ll look at the distribution of on-chain hot wallets first, then check whether any funds have been retained in new protocols, rather than getting carried away just by a few numbers.

As for the claims about social mining and fan tokens—this “attention is mining” narrative—I’ve honestly been skeptical for a while. Attention is hard to measure, liquidity is also poor, and most projects eventually turn into a loop where early arbitrageurs profit while later believers get left holding the bag. People like me who normally poke around new protocols everywhere occasionally get burned too, so I don’t dare to blindly rush in anymore. Rational people should look at audit reports and data models first. For now, that’s it.