Observe a phenomenon. A while back, there was a “rug pull” in the chain game space—there were already signs. On-chain fund flows have been getting slower and slower, fewer and fewer large new wallet addresses are coming in, but instead a bunch of studio-run accounts with small numbers are racking up transactions. In this kind of situation, if you chase a trending topic and jump in, chances are you’ll be the one left holding the bag for someone else.

Put simply, it’s an attention economy. Every time the spotlight moves to a new hotspot, it’s funds changing hands. The tighter you chase, the easier it is to get cut. My own approach is to first look at the movements of on-chain whales: they enter and exit at a slower pace, but their direction is usually right. Don’t keep staring at the spotlight—look at who is quietly positioning themselves in the shadows; that may be safer. In any case, moving half a beat behind in the market isn’t necessarily a bad thing.