7.18 evening thoughts

BTC surged to the 65,588 area yesterday, then the profit-taking funds concentrated and fled; the daily chart closed in consecutive red candles, entering a pullback channel. Today, in the afternoon, it got stuck in a narrow range of 63,800-64,000 and has been consolidating with low amplitude.

At the intraday low, 62,500-62,700 has spot bids and minor support. The downside pace has temporarily slowed, but throughout the bounce there has been no volume follow-through. Whales’ entry willingness is extremely weak; they repeatedly tested the 64,300 resistance level but were all rejected and fell back under pressure. In the short term, moving averages are tightly压制 from top to bottom, suppressing upward movement.

On the macro side, pressure remains bearish: Fed officials continue to release hawkish remarks, and rate-cut expectations keep cooling. The CLARITY crypto market structure bill’s bipartisan negotiations are stuck in a deadlock; the updated text will be released on Thursday. Getting 60 votes to pass in the Senate is extremely difficult, and regulatory uncertainty continues to weigh on whale sentiment.

For BTC: look for a reaction around 64,700-65,200, with targets at 63,300-62,800.
For ETH: look for a reaction around 1,880-1,920, with targets at 1,820-1,780.

$BTC $ETH