$BTC Storage continues to weaken, and the semiconductor index plunges 10% in a single week

This week, the global memory supply chain collectively dumped; the semiconductor index crashed 10% week-on-week. SK Hynix and Micron both saw sharp pullbacks, and domestic memory-related stocks fell in volume, reflecting a valuation-repair cycle driven by multiple negative catalysts converging.
The superficial trigger is that the sector surged significantly in the first half of the year, and a large amount of profit-taking closed out on earnings report-related catalysts. This was compounded by South Korea tightening leverage for ETFs, triggering forced liquidation, while ChangXin’s massive IPO “drained blood” from on-market liquidity, amplifying selling sentiment. The deeper core divergence lies in cyclical expectations: Samsung, Hynix, and Micron are all expanding production on a trillion-level scale, and the market is pricing in 2027-2028 universal memory capacity oversupply in advance, raising concerns that the chip price-increase cycle may have peaked. Meanwhile, the AI compute narrative has shown marginal loosening; memory-compression technologies and idle compute shifting weaken the linear optimistic expectation of “endless storage buildout.”
But there is severe internal divergence within the segment: ordinary DDR and NAND are under pressure, while high-end HBM remains tight thanks to long-term procurement agreements from cloud providers, meaning structural optimism has not disappeared. This selloff is a bet on future supply ahead of time, not a comprehensive deterioration of fundamentals.
Looking ahead, investors need to track cloud providers’ capital expenditures and memory spot price quotations. Near term, selling pressure has not cleared, and volatility will likely continue to intensify. Over the medium to long term, only HBM advanced process technologies and domestic substitution will have opportunities to ride through the cycle.