At 2:00 a.m., the rain outside the window pattered steadily and endlessly. I scrolled through a bit of on-chain data, and the stablecoin supply had climbed a little again. A lot of people take this as a signal for a bull market, but I think you shouldn’t take it too seriously. When the ETF came in, it was the same—everyone was shouting, “Funds are coming from outside the market!” So what happened? The market still had to churn and consolidate. After staying in the mountains for a long time, you learn that changes in the weather are more accurate than predictions—just because the rain is heavier doesn’t necessarily mean it’ll be a good year; the real question is whether the rain can seep into the soil.

In the group, people are arguing whether extreme funding rates mean a reversal or just more of the bubble getting squeezed. I’m not going to guess. Instead of fixating on those, think of your position as kindling—add it slowly, build it in batches. As long as you can weather the storm. That’s it for now—good night.