Seeing so many people instantly say “bull market back” the moment stablecoin supply rises, or shout “big money entering” whenever an ETF has net inflows, I feel it’s a bit too hasty. As soon as the data changes color, the story changes with it, but correlation isn’t the same thing as causation. The logic behind funds coming in off-exchange is actually quite complex. Stablecoin issuance can also reflect arbitrage demand or temporary volatility in on-chain activity. When you look back, the price still falls if it’s meant to—simple as that.

Recently, those large on-chain transfers and the fluctuations in exchange hot and cold wallets have been interpreted by various analysts as signals of “smart money.” Honestly, I do look at address retention and deal data from time to time, but the more I look, the more it feels like many transfers are just internal exchange shuffling, or big players moving positions around—hardly a real signal. Anyway, I don’t buy it…