I can’t fall asleep at 3 a.m., so I stared at the on-chain data for a bit. Sometimes when I look at those “coincidental transfers,” I suddenly find it kind of funny—what real coincidences are there in the market? It’s nothing more than someone splitting the path and you not noticing it. For example, zero-fee transfers that go through multisig—you think it’s random, but in fact it’s just the setup for arbitrage or for defending the market.

Right now, the funding rates for spot and derivatives are extremely, absurdly high. A group of people are shouting about whether there’ll be a reversal or whether the bubble will pop. Honestly, I don’t know the answer either. But when I watch those messy transfer paths, I just feel that as long as they can be broken down into a chain that’s explainable, the odds are that it’s people behind it—not machines. I’m not chasing it anymore, and my leverage is only a little—don’t overthink it. That’s it for now. Go to sleep.