Two generations. Half a year. One tier. Nine days.

Two generations.
Two years ago, when talking about homegrown large models, the industry consensus was that they were 1 to 2 generations behind the world. To catch up? First survive.
Half a year.
A year ago, the “gap” shifted from 1 to 2 generations to half a year. Some people started to disagree, and some started to take it seriously.
One tier.
Today, independent evaluations have put Kimi K3 in the same tier as GPT-5.5 and Claude Opus 4.8. At the doorway of the world’s top tier, it has stepped in. Above it, only Claude Fable 5—ranked number one—remains, one tier away.
Nine days.
On July 27, K3 fully opened its weights. The strongest group that used to keep things closed and sell them is now laying out its foundation for the whole world to download. Chasing down until it was only one tier away, then choosing to open-source—this stance is even fiercer than the scores.
From two generations, to half a year, to one tier—the steps are getting shorter and shorter.
Is the next slot zero? No one dares to guarantee it. The rankings are alive; the next month, when a new model comes out, the seating order will be reshuffled completely.
But in the slot for July 2026, it’s already been carved in: domestic models, standing by as contenders for the first tier.
The final floor—results will be clear by the end of this year. I’ve already moved the bench first.