I’m not really good at staring at whale addresses and copying what they do, but after watching for a while, I found a pretty simple thing: you think it’s an address building a position, but maybe they’re just hedging—once they lock in the risk exposure, they run. The other day during that cross-chain bridge incident with abnormal quotes, a bunch of people chased the “whales” in. Then they waited for confirmations for ages, and when they looked back, the whales had already placed reverse trades on that chain, and the profits ran faster than anyone’s. To put it bluntly: on-chain data only tells you that he moved, it doesn’t tell you why he moved. If you charge in blindly, he may not have planned to hold for long in the first place. Anyway, now when I see those large transfers into exchanges, I treat it as he’s going to sell—not as he’s going to copy. Being a bit harsh: if you can’t even hold on to the coins you’ve got, how do you expect to keep up with the whales’ rhythm?

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