7.18 evening outlook

Big pie: After yesterday surged to the 65,588 area and met the “glue point,” the profit-taking funds concentrated and rushed out. The daily chart has closed in continuous bearish candles, entering a pullback channel. This afternoon it has been capped in a narrow consolidation range of 63,800-64,000.
Within the day, at the low end 62,500-62,700, spot buying is present at a slightly supportive level. The sell-down pace has temporarily slowed, but on the bounce there has been no volume follow-through across the entire move. “Duo-tou” (top buyers) capital has extremely low willingness to enter. After repeatedly testing up toward the 64,300 resistance, it was fully pressured and fell back. In the short term, moving averages are tightly capping upward from top to bottom.

On the macro level, pressure remains dominant: Fed officials keep issuing hawkish statements, and rate-cut expectations continue to cool; the CLARITY crypto market structure bill’s bipartisan negotiations have fallen into a stalemate—an updated draft text will be released only on Thursday. Securing 60 votes to advance the measure in the Senate is extremely difficult, and regulatory uncertainty continues to suppress “duo-tou” sentiment.

Big pie: Sell/hold reversal area around 64,700-65,200; target around 63,300-62,800.
Second pie: Sell/hold reversal area around 1,880-1,920; target around 1,820-1,780.

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