I just saw a new L1 incentive again, and the group chat is full of people shouting “go for it.” I couldn’t help it—I clicked into the contract and found the refund permission hasn’t been locked yet, so I immediately calmed down.

Honestly, before chasing a price jump, ask yourself first: did you see solid, proven information, or are you just being pushed along by emotions? My experience is that in the latter case, nine times out of ten is basically handing over money.

As for the word “long-term,” my own definition is: don’t start by talking about weeks, months, or quarters—first ask yourself whether you can still hold up if the contract goes wrong, liquidity dries up, or the project team just gives up. Put simply, I treat every position as if it could be “worth zero tomorrow.” The longer you can stay alive, the more it counts as long-term; otherwise, it’s just self-deception.

Anyway, that’s it for now. If you’re getting tempted, go look more at on-chain data—don’t get greedy.