The current Middle East situation has evolved into a direct military standoff between the US and Iran characterized by “mutual attacks and defenses with a spiral escalation”: the US military has launched high-intensity airstrikes into deep targets inside Iran for seven consecutive nights, while Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has, for the first time, launched cross-border missile and drone strikes against US military bases in Jordan as a tough show of retaliation. This development marks a shift in the two sides’ game from indirect proxy conflict to open military confrontation, and the core dispute over control of the Strait of Hormuz shows no signs of easing.

The bullish positive impact on markets is concentrated in the energy and safe-haven sectors: Iran’s choice to attack bases in Jordan instead of targets in the Persian Gulf both demonstrates strike capability and avoids an immediate blockade of the strait, but the momentum of mutual reprisals between the US and Iran has caused the Middle East geopolitical risk premium to surge sharply—Brent crude has held above $80; if subsequent fighting spills over into the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea shipping lanes, about one fifth of global oil supply faces a threat, and oil prices may have a chance to return to the $100-per-barrel range. Meanwhile, safe-haven assets such as gold and the US dollar will continue to receive buy-side support, and inflation pressure will be further intensified by higher logistics costs caused by shipping detours throughout global supply chains. Overall, given the US-Iran confrontation with no room for compromise, the related assets will receive sustained upside momentum in the short term.

Big cake to the upside, seeing 64,000-64,500

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