I looked through on-chain stablecoin data recently and found that the total supply is actually steadily increasing, but the price hasn’t really moved. A lot of people, once they see ETF inflows, start shouting “bull run is here,” and treat off-exchange capital as a life raft. I think these two things are at most related, not causal. Back when rate-cut expectations were around, the US dollar index and risk assets rose and fell in the same direction too—it was pretty strange, and it shows that market sentiment doesn’t always care about fundamentals. Anyway, my own strategy is to watch whether stablecoins are seeing sustained inflows, and not to guess the big direction. What about you?