I just saw a screenshot of an on-chain transfer, and in the group chat everyone started shouting “smart money is moving in.” I thought, what’s the difference between that and seeing someone buy green onions in a farmers’ market and claiming the price of green onions is going to go up? When stablecoins de-peg happened, everyone stared at the reserves until dawn, yet it still turned into a bank run. In plain terms, no matter how transparent it is, once your psychological defenses break, nothing else matters.

I’ve personally been through the USDC de-peg trap—watching my principal evaporate right in front of my eyes was like seeing a vegetable garden chewed up overnight by pests. Later I learned my lesson: I treat the reserve reports like the weather forecast on the day they come out—knowing the general wind direction is enough; don’t really believe you can rely on it to dodge a storm. Now when I see unusual large transfers, I assume it’s just the scythe being sharpened first—don’t rush to follow the crowd.

Anyway, I’m in only two modes now: either quietly check the audit reports to confirm the assets are clean; or just lie low and wait for the buzz to die down. Don’t ask me why I sound so bleak—ask me why I’ve stepped into so many traps, but at least I’m still alive.