Just saw someone use stablecoin supply and ETF inflows to make the case that if there are more stablecoins, the market should rise, and they even pulled up a chart. In reality, these two things are at most “same direction, different causes.” Off-exchange capital comes in to buy ETFs, which in turn pushes up the coin price, and then stablecoins follow along with increased issuance—not that stablecoins are what causes the pump. It’s like I plant the seeds first, then water them—you can’t say the water is what makes the seeds sprout (even though water is definitely helpful).

Recently, several testnets have been running points-and-quests. A lot of people are grinding hard. They say things like “will the mainnet issue tokens?” but what they’re really doing is betting. I’ve participated a little too—just a few dozen U in gas fees, like composting fertilizer. Anyway, it’s farming; you just have to wait patiently for the harvest.

That’s it for now—don’t treat correlation as causation. You’ll easily fall into traps.