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I just flipped through a few option positions and can’t help but say: time value is like the buyer is really paying rent, while the seller is the landlord collecting rent.
Anyway, based on what I’ve observed, volatility has been ridiculously low recently. Sellers—especially those selling out-of-the-money Calls and Puts—are basically picking up money. As long as you don’t run too heavy on position size and you set stop-losses, you can lie back and earn theta decay every day. But buyers also do have opportunities. The key is judging when the “landlord is going to raise the rent”—for example, ahead of hot events or before data releases, volatility will jump.
These past couple of days, people in the group have been circulating rumors about stablecoins de-pegging. Honestly, every time panic kicks in, the option market’s sellers get the most excited, because they can package that “cheap scare” and sell it to you. If you’re the buyer, buying an out-of-the-money Put to bet on a black swan is actually pretty cost-effective—but the premise is that you can withstand the ongoing erosion of time value.
In plain terms, the options market is a game of “time versus emotion.” Sellers profit from your lack of patience, while buyers bet that the sellers can’t price the fear correctly.
As for which side you choose…