Recently, I’ve seen people draw a direct equal sign between stablecoin supply and ETF fund inflows, saying, “Money has come, so it will definitely go up.” Honestly, correlation doesn’t equal causation. Most of the time, these two data sets just move together in tandem, and it’s still not clear who is driving whom. Whether real off-exchange funds are truly flowing in, or whether existing capital is merely being shuffled around, depends on the on-chain flow of stablecoins and changes in the fee rate—otherwise it’s easy to be misled by superficial numbers.

By the way, let’s talk about the recent Meme rotation and celebrity “buy/sell call” announcements. The hype is cycling at lightning speed, and even veteran players are warning newcomers not to take the last baton. For my part, I’m used to laying out sentiment indicators and taking a look. When the greed index is high and everyone starts competing to see who can run faster, that’s when it gets interesting.