#GateDEX全面接入RobinhoodChain

Bitcoin 2026.07.18

I. Market Situation (Spot BTC, current price within $63,850–$63,950)

1. Intraday & 24-hour trend
24-hour performance is up slightly 0.1%–0.7%. After yesterday’s pullback to the $62,537 low, it saw a modest rebound and the whole day traded in a narrow range; Ethereum also rebounded slightly by 0.4%. Altcoins show clear divergence, with smaller-cap coins rebounding more weakly. 24-hour trading volume is about $25.3 billion, down roughly 9% versus yesterday. During the rebound, the buy-side incremental demand was insufficient; this is a range-bound contest among existing liquidity.
2. Market sentiment and position liquidations
The Fear & Greed Index is 25, staying in the extreme fear range. Only slightly lifted away from the prior fear low of 21–22, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The long/short ratio in futures is 62.5% longs. There were no large-scale liquidations in the past 24 hours. Leverage funds are largely “lying flat,” and neither longs nor shorts have shown active adding behavior, leaving trading interest subdued.
3. ETF fund flows
This week marks the third consecutive day of net inflows. On July 17 alone, total net inflows were $132 million, with almost all funds concentrated in BlackRock’s IBIT. Flows in and out of other ETFs were roughly flat or saw small net outflows. Over three days, cumulative net inflows reached $368 million. Although this reversed the prior streak of nine consecutive weeks of outflows, the single-day inflow size is still far below bull-market peak levels. Institutions are only lightly accumulating on dips, without major positioning.

II. Key Price Levels

Short-term resistance (from top to bottom)

1. Strong resistance: $65,200–$65,600 (50-day moving average + prior rebound high; only with volume and sustained stability above it can the upside repair space open up)
2. Near-term resistance: $64,500 (tested resistance level multiple times intraday; today’s first sell-pressure zone)

Short-term support (from bottom to top)

1. First support: $62,500–$62,700 (intraday lows; core cost basis for this rebound; the water-shed between bulls and bears)
2. Strong support: $61,800–$62,000 (prior consolidation platform; if it breaks down decisively, this rebound repair will fail)

III. Multi-sides Drive Logic

Bullish factors

1. Spot ETFs ended their long streak of consecutive outflows; institutional funds show marginal return. Long-term large holders’ sell pressure has noticeably weakened, and the stop-loss selling has largely cleared out from below;
2. June’s US CPI cooled. Rate-cut expectations have not been fully extinguished. The 10-year US Treasury yield has eased slightly, modestly reducing the opportunity cost of holding crypto assets;
3. After price retreated to lower levels, some spot dip-buying capital moved in. Around $62,500, the ability to absorb sells remains adequate, and near-term downside momentum appears to be exhausting.

Today’s main bearish pressure

1. Fed officials continue to deliver hawkish remarks. Governor Cook explicitly stated that if inflation does not ease, further tightening of monetary policy is not ruled out. The market has pushed back rate-cut expectations significantly, and the long-lasting high-rate environment suppresses risk-asset valuations;
2. Geopolitical conflict in the Middle East keeps intensifying. Oil remains in high-range consolidation. The market worries that energy may drive inflation back and forth. Funds proactively avoid high-volatility assets like crypto and instead rotate first into gold and Treasuries;
3. US stocks’ AI and tech sectors are collectively weakening. The Nasdaq is under pressure, overall risk appetite is moving lower, and the crypto market faces similar headwinds;
4. Rebound trading volume keeps shrinking. The rise relies only on small near-term spot buying, with no incremental leveraged capital to propel it, making the sustainability of the rebound questionable.

IV. Forecast by Time Horizon

1. Short term (1–3 days): weak range-bound consolidation
A modest repair from the lows, but with insufficient volume; rebound height is capped. Overall it trades within $62,000–$64,800. If $62,500 support is broken, it will probe again and test the key support at $61,800. Only after holding above $64,500 will conditions for further upside be met.
2. Medium term (1–4 weeks): ranging and bottom-building, with direction waiting for confirmation
Easing inflation brings a near-term repair window, but hawkish Fed messaging and ongoing geopolitical risks limit upside room. Only with volume and sustained stability above the $65,600 resistance can the rebound trend be confirmed to continue. If $61,800 breaks, this repair ends and price returns to a downward channel.
3. Long term (quarter-level): wide-range bottom consolidation
Long-term holders keep positions stable. Large sell pressure on-chain is near the end, so there is limited room for deep downside. However, the Fed’s high-rate cycle has not ended, so there is no foundation for a one-way bull run. The medium-to-long term remains a range-bound pattern.

V. Key Signals to Monitor Next

1. Macro: continued speeches by Fed officials, next week’s PPI inflation data; whether the Middle East situation further escalates and pushes up oil prices; volatility in the 10-year US Treasury yield;
2. Flows: whether spot ETFs can sustain large net inflows for three consecutive days, confirming continued institutional fund returns; changes in futures long/short positioning and liquidation size;
3. Technicals: whether price can hold above the $64,500 resistance with volume; whether $62,500 support can be maintained without an ineffective breakdown.