#PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 #辣妹儿李嘉欣 Just woke up—let me talk about this ChangXin Storage listing in a way that’s easier to understand!

First, I don’t know whether a token can be bought just because it’s listed, but judging by Musk’s little rocket token listing, yes, it did pump. After that it also dumped. You can understand it as: “If it pumps after listing, you ride the wave and sell.” Then if you think about it that way, right now it’s a choice between OpenAI and ChangXin—pick one of the two. I think choosing to subscribe for OpenAI is way better than buying ChangXin tokens. Seriously.

First of all, ChangXin is currently in the IPO lottery (underwriting) calculation—at most you can get 18 lots. Based on an opening price of around 8-something, one lot is over 20,000 yuan. Now, overseas people have been pumping the token price to 7, which is about 50 yuan. Compared to that, it’s a 6–7x price versus the opening. What people in China generally say—“it can rise many multiples”—is based on the A-share opening price around 8-something (I forgot the exact number). But what you’re buying is the 50+ yuan price. If it rises 10x after listing, that would be 80+ yuan. Then compare that 80+ potential with a 50+ yuan entry—you’re looking at only about 20–30x room. You can work out the comparison yourself carefully; mine is roughly around that. I don’t remember their exact target prices.

Secondly, have you ever seen in the crypto world a “stock token” that lists as a US stock, Korean stock, or Hong Kong stock? I want to ask: have any of you seen an A-share listed company issuing a token, or has any well-known domestic mainland enterprise issued trade tokens? For example JD.com or Alibaba issuing stablecoins—those stablecoins aren’t for trading hype; they’re for actual trading use. Don’t get it mixed up. Official red-head documents from our country clearly state that all listed companies and institutions in China are not allowed to issue tokens, and platforms are also not allowed to provide tokens to users within mainland China. So I want to know: who issued ChangXin’s token? If I举报/submit a report on ChangXin, can they give me a little red flag 🚩?

Thirdly, the token intro says it’s a 1:1 hedge/peg to stocks. Then the question comes: if it’s a stock that hasn’t even been listed yet—meaning it’s not something you can buy in the market—then you’re pegging to something that doesn’t exist. And once the market has that thing, the market maker uses “hand speed” in the A-shares market to sweep up inventory at a price lower than the “coin-circle” prices. For example, if the peg price for coin-circle users is 50 yuan, then in the A-shares market it would sweep at a price below 50, turning itself into a middleman that earns the spread.

Finally, it’s now pretty clear: ChangXin’s token is not a token listed by ChangXin itself, nor by some third-party institution that ChangXin indirectly contacted. It can be said that this token essentially “piggybacked” on ChangXin’s situation—there’s a market maker who set up a token to peg to ChangXin’s stock. This token can be understood as tracking the price volatility of ChangXin’s stock, but it’s not ChangXin Storage itself. Or if you want to play it this way—one day if Moutai gets popular again, will the crypto world come out with a market maker pegging Moutai stock, and other A-share-company pegged stocks? Then in the future, you wouldn’t need to pay some of the A-share related fees—you’d just play A-shares stocks through that. Crypto market users would ask: will “those people” in the US stock market agree? If you play this game with A-shares, you should consider whether this logic holds up.

And at the very, very last: if all of the above is true, then what you’re playing is genuinely ChangXin’s own token. Then after listing, the token price should revert to the stock price. The “10x surge” people talk about—does it jump to 10x immediately, or does it take a listing pump to 30 or 40? Even if it only pumps to 50, it would barely match the price you bought at in the coin circle. If it rises to below 50, then you start seeing a pullback. Then what do you do with your 7 USD token—hold it or cut your loss? Or like Bitcoin: you know Bitcoin will definitely rise in the future, but it isn’t pumping now. ChangXin will rise in the future, but it isn’t pumping now—so what do you do with the coin in your hand?