This Week’s Highlights: Inflation cools, but “hawkish” signals from the Fed persist; the U.S.-Iran conflict continues; South Korea tightens leverage regulations— the market is searching for direction amid multiple signals

Brothers, there’s a bit a lot of information this week. CPI and PPI both came in below expectations— inflation finally cooled— but the Fed turned around and said, “One month of data isn’t enough; the Federal Reserve still needs to prioritize restoring price stability.” South Korea on that side took direct action— it paused the listing of single-stock leveraged ETFs and raised the margin to 30 million KRW. The U.S.-Iran conflict also hasn’t calmed down: U.S. forces have continued airstrikes, Iran has kept retaliating, and the Strait of Hormuz remains locked in a standoff

This Week’s Quick Overview:

Macro: Inflation cools, but the Fed won’t back off
U.S. June CPI rose 3.5% year over year, and core CPI rose 2.6% year over year— both below expectations. The market has lowered expectations for rate hikes. But the Fed said that one month of data is insufficient to confirm inflation is under control, and that the primary goal remains restoring price stability

Geopolitics: The U.S.-Iran conflict keeps escalating
The U.S. military has carried out airstrikes targeting Iran for several consecutive days. Iran has continued striking U.S. military bases in the Middle East and reiterated that it will not accept U.S. interference in the Strait of Hormuz. The White House said both sides are still in communication, but Iran insists on the principle of “commitment for commitment.” It won’t quiet down in the near term, and oil prices will have to keep taking the pressure

South Korea’s Regulation: Tightening Single-Stock Leveraged ETFs
South Korea’s Financial Services Commission has paused the listing of single-stock leveraged ETFs, raising margin requirements to 30 million KRW and increasing the minimum trading unit. After 320k retail investors were liquidated, regulators finally moved— for the market, it’s a short-term pain but long-term health

MiGe’s View:
Inflation cooling is a good thing, but with the Fed’s hawkish stance, fighting in the Middle East, and South Korea tightening leverage all stacking together, the market still looks cautious in the short term. The storage sector is still forming a base; the key variable next week is the extent of the Korean stock market’s opening rebound after a gap-down, and the news about Starship’s re-test flight

Brothers, enjoy your weekend break. We’ll fight again next week.

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