White-Hair Stock God Serenity: the optical communications industry’s Taiwan Semiconductor—Goldman Sachs raises its target price to RMB 2,581

Goldman Sachs stepped in on July 17, raising the 12-month target price for A-share光模組 leader InnoLight（300308） from 1,187 yuan to 2,581 yuan RMB in one move, directly doubling it, while maintaining a Buy rating, with about 163.6% upside potential versus the recent share price. On X, an AI supply-chain analyst with a white-haired avatar—called the “White-Haired Stock God” in the Chinese investment community—Serenity posted commentary: Compared with the target price, the truly interesting part is that Goldman Sachs increased its earnings forecasts for 2026 to 2028 by 65%, 108%, and 119%, respectively.
(Background recap: TSMC net profit surged by 77% yet sent chip stocks tumbling! Swissquote: capex increases, and the market starts to fear AI is overheating)
(Background add-on: Goldman Sachs: the pullback from the seven giants is “pressure release,” not a market top, and the rotation is happening across the eight major sectors)

Key summary

• On 7/17, Goldman Sachs raised InnoLight’s target price from 1,187 yuan to 2,581 yuan RMB, doubling it, while maintaining a Buy rating.
• Goldman Sachs also simultaneously raised its earnings forecasts for 2026 to 2028 by 65%, 108%, and 119%, respectively, focusing on silicon photonics and a surge in volume for 1.6T/3.2T.
• Serenity said InnoLight is a bellwether for optical communications; the 800G demand exceeding expectations is also a positive for peers such as AAOI and Lumentum.

A thing like “doubling the target price” tends to be dismissed as “headline killing” when it happens to an individual stock, but this time the protagonist—InnoLight, an A-share leader in Shenzhen—is being lifted to the top by the AI optical communications rally. On July 17, Goldman Sachs issued its latest research report, raising the 12-month target price of this Shenzhen A-share leader from 1,187 yuan to 2,581 yuan RMB and maintaining a Buy rating. InnoLight’s share price has already climbed above the 1,000-yuan mark recently; based on the pre-report price, the 2,581 yuan still implies about 163.6% upside.

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Goldman Sachs raised Innolight PT to 2581 RMB. Roughly 163.6% upside from current valuations.

But the largest thing is its 2026–2028 earnings est revision raised by a whopping 65%/108%/119%, based on:

– Much higher silicon photonics module… https://t.co/OvKyvnppeT pic.twitter.com/dpwsoKBlIF

— Serenity (@aleabitoreddit) July 17, 2026

However, what truly pushed the news to hot search on X was that analyst Serenity, who has a white-haired profile picture and is dubbed the “White-Haired Stock God” by the Chinese investment circle. She reminded readers that the target price is just the result; the harshest part of Goldman Sachs’ research is the large upward revision to InnoLight’s earnings forecasts for 2026 to 2028—up by 65%, 108%, and 119%, respectively.

Goldman Sachs is betting on silicon photonics penetration

Goldman Sachs’ confidence in moving earnings forecasts higher comes from several growth drivers firing at the same time: a surge in silicon photonics (Silicon Photonics) module shipments, continued expansion of AI infrastructure, and 1.6T and 3.2T high-speed optical modules lifting both product ASPs and profit margins, along with continued capex expansion led by Nvidia. Goldman Sachs expects that the penetration rates of silicon photonics in 800G, 1.6T, and 3.2T products will rise to 60%, 80%, and 100%, respectively—meaning essentially the next-generation optical modules will almost all use this technology.

Put simply, silicon photonics is moving optical transceiver modules that originally were assembled from discrete components onto a silicon chip as much as possible, which lowers costs, saves power, and makes scale-up easier.

As penetration rates climb, demand for upstream components like continuous-wave (CW) laser diodes and SOI silicon substrates also gets supported across more granular segments. Serenity’s investment logic is exactly this “bottleneck theory”: she doesn’t chase Nvidia directly; instead, she looks upstream at the parts that are most constrained by AI compute capacity. Optical communications and silicon photonics, as well as indium phosphide (InP) substrates, are all areas she has long tracked.

The bellwether isn’t just one stock

Comparing InnoLight to “TSMC of optical communications” is the core observation in Serenity’s post. The market treats TSMC’s capex as a temperature gauge for the semiconductor cycle; similarly, InnoLight’s shipments and orders are used to gauge the heat of the entire AI optical communications industry chain.

She also mentioned that InnoLight previously disclosed during exchanges that the growth in 800G optical module demand is beyond expectations. That implies that overseas players working on optical communications—such as Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) and Lumentum (LITE)—should also be watched closely for their upcoming earnings reports.

When the whole industry has just experienced a big pullback, Goldman Sachs still dares to make a bold upward revision to earnings forecasts. This reflects that the fundamentals of the AI optical communications industry chain remain strong, and the entire photonics ecosystem has a chance to catch the tailwind from a new round of AI infrastructure buildout.

A reminder: Serenity is a supply-chain analyst on X with built-in traffic. Before that, she was a trader on Reddit WSB. Overseas investment communities have circulated that she openly discussed stocks with win rates close to 90%, but these track records are mostly compiled by the community itself and are subject to survivorship bias. Her interpretation can be treated as a map of the industry chain, not as a direct buy/sell signal.

The 2,581 yuan target price is an optimistic scenario produced by Goldman Sachs’ model. How long this capex-hot AI wave can last—and whether silicon photonics penetration will actually deliver on schedule—are the key to whether the “script” can play out to the end.

Common questions

Why did Goldman Sachs raise InnoLight’s target price to 2,581 yuan?

In its July 17, 2026 research report, Goldman Sachs believes that silicon photonics modules will scale up, and that 1.6T and 3.2T optical modules will raise ASPs and profit margins; combined with continued strength in AI capex driven by Nvidia, it raised the target price from 1,187 yuan to 2,581 yuan RMB, and also raised earnings forecasts for 2026 to 2028 by 65%, 108%, and 119%, respectively.

Who is the white-haired “Stock God” Serenity?

Serenity is an AI semiconductor supply-chain analyst on X. She used to be a trader on Reddit WSB, and in the Chinese investment community she is called the “white-haired stock god.” She advocates the “bottleneck theory,” focusing on the most upstream constrained parts of AI compute, with optical communications and silicon photonics being key areas she watches long term.