July 18, 2026 (Saturday) ETH/USDT perpetual futures complete technical practice trading strategy

I. Core market tone

ETH current price is 1,843. On Saturday, institutional funds exit, and market liquidity shrinks sharply. The price action fully tracks BTC 62,800—65,500, moving in a shrinking range box with no independent trend. Daily highs step down one by one, bullish momentum decays, and price is pressured below the moving averages. Overall, it remains in a weak consolidation structure. This rise in the current cycle is only a technical rebound after the drop, and it has not formed a trend reversal.
Intraday core trading principle: On weekends with low liquidity, prioritize rebound for selling/shorting at highs; support levels are only for very-light-position long attempts. Use limit orders throughout, reduce position size and leverage. All short-term positions must be closed by the same day to avoid Monday’s opening gap and liquidity wick needles.

II. Key intraday levels by layer

Resistance levels (from near to far)

1. First short-term resistance: 1,865–1,890 (hourly moving average resonance suppression, intraday long/short watershed)

2. Medium-term strength/weakness watershed: 1,950 (prior rebound high; only if volume expands and price holds above it can the short-term weakness be reversed)

3. Strong resistance: 1,990–2,000 (integer round levels + historically dense trapped-coin/choke zone)

Support levels (from near to far)

1. Short-term immediate support: 1,830 (intraday short-term defense floor)

2. Rebound lifeline support: 1,810–1,815 (overlap zone with the 50-day moving average; breaking it ends this cycle’s short-term rebound structure)

3. Trend strong support: 1,765 (next key support on the swing; breaking opens room for a deeper adjustment)

III. Three standardized execution entry plans

Plan 1: Sell/short at resistance zone under pressure (preferred intraday)

Entry conditions: Price rebounds and closes long upper wicks in the 1,865–1,890 range; 1-hour RSI ≥ 68 shows stalling; place short orders in batches with limit orders
Unified stop-loss: Above 1,900 (if price breaks above short-term resistance, the short logic fails—exit unconditionally)
Take-profit in batches:

1. First target 1,830: cut 50% position; move stop-loss up in sync to break-even based on entry cost;

2. Second target 1,810 lifeline: close all remaining position and exit;
Add-on rule: If there is a second rebound and it returns near 1,890 but lacks power to break through, you may add the same size; the stop-loss point remains unchanged.

Plan 2: Light long when support holds (only for tactical plays; no heavy-position contrarian trading)

Entry conditions: Pull back to 1,830 and close with a long lower wick to show a bottom; two consecutive hourly K-lines stabilize; set up long orders in batches
Stop-loss location: Below 1,822 (if it breaks through the intraday short-term defense support)
Take-profit target: Exit all near 1,865 short-term resistance; do not hold for a long-term swing position.

Plan 3: Follow-through on breakout/breakdown with orderly follow trades

1. Long on upside trend
Hourly candles with real body and volume expanding, holding firmly above 1,890 resistance; then on pullback to 1,870 with strong follow-through, continue entering longs; stop-loss 1,860; target 1,950 watershed. If price surges and then quickly falls back below 1,890, judge it as a false breakout and close immediately to exit. Weekend liquidity is scarce, so the probability of an effective breakout is relatively low.

2. Short on downside breakdown
On the 4-hour K-line, if the real body effectively breaks below the 1,810 lifeline, follow through by chasing the short; stop-loss above 1,840; first target 1,765 strong support.

IV. Weekend-dedicated hard risk control rules

1. Leverage and position sizing: Use isolated margin mode (逐仓) throughout; leverage fixed at 3–5x; per-trade opening margin must not exceed 5% of total account funds; per-trade maximum loss must be strictly controlled within 1% of the account net value.

2. Order execution: Only use limit orders; absolutely forbid market orders to chase the current price. In a low-liquidity environment, market order slippage will magnify actual loss multiple times.

3. Profit/loss ratio constraint: For every entry order, profit/loss ratio must be ≥ 1:2. If there is insufficient upside space, skip opening the position directly.

4. Holding time limit: All intraday range-consolidation short-term orders must be fully closed before the Saturday session end; do not hold over the night to prevent Monday’s gap risk.

5. Handling false breakouts: If price pierces key levels but the成交量 shrinks and quickly snaps back into the range box within a short time, close at the first opportunity to avoid main-force needle wash trading.

6. Correlation risk control: Only compress ETH trading frequency when BTC has not broken either of the two watershed levels—65,500 resistance and 62,800 support. Stay mainly in observation.

7. Trading frequency: Limit opening positions to no more than 3 trades per day to reduce fee loss and ineffective sweep losses.

V. Two full market-response playbooks

Playbook 1: Follow a bullish bias up move (probability 34%)

If BTC places strong volume and holds above 65,500, driving ETH to break above the 1,890 resistance, pause high-level short setups and switch back to a “buy on pullback” idea. Focus on testing the 1,950 strength/weakness watershed; if there is no-volume push higher, quickly take profit and exit.

Playbook 2: Weak consolidation drifting downward (probability 66%)

At 1,865 the line repeatedly faces pressure and turns down; throughout, stick to the high-level short approach. After the 1,830 short-term support is lost, look forward to the 1,810 lifeline. Once 1,810 is decisively broken on the real body, add to the short position to test the 1,765 support.

VI. Intraday time-slice execution rhythm

1. Asian session (daytime): Liquidity is extremely sluggish. Only pre-place limit orders at the high/low boundaries in advance; do not manually interfere with the live price action.

2. Europe/US session (after 20:00): Liquidity releases slightly. Keep tight focus on the two watershed levels—1,890 resistance and 1,810 support. After volume breaks and confirms, execute the follow-through orders aligned with the breakout.

3. Late-session: In the final hour before close, gradually close all consolidation positions to complete a flat, no-position finish. #USDT充值理财双重奏 $ETH ‌