July 18 BTC/ETH Mi Shen strategy

Happy weekend. Yesterday’s tweet from Mi Shen told everyone the adjustment logic, but many friends still haven’t figured it out, so the Dō-Kō thinking hasn’t been converted. This logic still needs to be clarified, which will help with later actions. In simple terms, the expectation of “Non-Farm + CPI” has already been fulfilled. Combined with Vosh’s remarks, it’s not possible to extract a better expectation. In essence, all value/risk tradeoffs are essentially judgment calls on expectations. If expectations can’t keep up, you adjust accordingly. At the same time, combined with the US-Iran conflict + a surge in oil prices: if CPI is favorable (i.e., no rate hikes are expected), but oil prices rebound again, then inflation rises and in turn strengthens the rate-hike expectations again. So it goes back and forth like this—it all comes down to how you judge.
News: The US-Iran conflict is escalating. The Iranian side stated that the US-Iran memorandum of understanding “is effectively dead,” and if they don’t stop, there will be strong retaliation. A whale has been continuously selling 60k ETH. CLARITY Act sent out positive signals, and next week is expected to pass.

BTC: In the night session, after touching near the lower bound of the first range at 62,888, a rebound appeared, indicating there is no issue with the technical chart patterns and key levels. In the following rebound, it also met pressure when it reached the upper bound of the first range. For trading, it’s believed that the first bottoming rebound needs to be verified—there’s no change to the downside logic (US-Iran + oil prices + AI hardware instability). Intraday, the 64,100-64,800 range can still be used to add short positions. Watch whether the 60,800-61,800 area will provide a double-bottom signal. The weekend may move more slowly, so be patient and wait for a good position. (See the chart for specifics)

ETH: Don’t worry if you missed out on this round. The technical content here is very clear—what matters is maintaining enough patience to find suitable entry points. I marked many boxes on the chart. Treat the boxes themselves as a whole, so you don’t need to verify one line at a time. The box usage is simple: if you do Dō or Kō within a certain box, then just watch the upper rail or lower rail. Some people worry about what to do with a fake breakout—then at least use the midline of the next box as your defense; otherwise you’ll keep worrying that a low-probability event becomes a disguised holding bag. For example: if in the night session you do Kō near the upper rail at 1,855, then your defense should be placed around the midline of the next box’s 1,855-1,885 at about 1,872. Doing this gives a high value-to-risk ratio, and the profit/loss payoff is also reasonable. Mi Shen believes that last night’s first stop-the-fall was only an emotion-based repair, but the oil price + US-Iran logic hasn’t changed. The overnight chip performance was also not good. Given the multiple concerns about an AI bubble + geopolitical conflict + oil-price inflation, it’s very possible there will be a second attempt to test the lows. So consider adding shorts above 1,855. For Dō, you look favorably at the 1,755-1,792 range. This area has been verified multiple times before, so the credibility is relatively high. (See the chart for specifics)#PreIPOs第二期OpenAI认购 $ETH ‌