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$BTC This BTC move yesterday was so amateur—being too greedy. I went long at 62,733 during the day, took profit before sleeping, and the limit order for the 63,800 short filled and I entered the position.
If you’re holding a short
Congratulations—the trend is still on your side. But pay attention to these three things:
Don’t loosen your stop loss—above 65,500 you must cut. If it breaks, it’s a reversal
Trim 50% around 62,000—there’s a buy wall here, so the probability of a wick/piercing move is high
If price touches 58,000-60,000, take profit on everything—after a liquidation trigger, the rebound will be extremely fast
If you want to go long
Not the time yet, but soon. Two trigger conditions:
A sell-off with heavy volume signs near 62,000 (long lower wicks + volume increasing) → try a long with a small position, stop loss 60,500
The daily close regains 65,000 and then pulls back to confirm → once trend reversal is confirmed, you can add
If you want to bottom-fish
Don’t rush. Bottom-fishing isn’t guessing the bottom. Wait for signals:
Fear Index below 20 + 4-hour RSI below 25 + price in the 58,000-60,000 range = a classic panic bottom
When this combo appears, enter in batches: add one more order every time it drops 2,000, and keep total position size to no more than 50% of the planned amount
The remaining 50% will wait for reversal confirmation before entering
Odds calculation
Short from 63,000:
Target 58,000, upside 5,000 points
Stop loss 65,500, risk 2,500 points
R:R = 2:1 ✅
Long from 63,000:
Target 70,000, upside 7,000 points
Stop loss 60,500, risk 2,500 points
R:R = 2.8:1 ✅
The odds on both sides aren’t bad, but in terms of choosing direction: shorts win on certainty, longs win on the risk-reward ratio.