A Brief Analysis of BTC’s Short-Term Trend from Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Volume-Price Relationship, Order Flow, and Price Action

$BTC #BTC I. Dow Theory
Main trend (1-hour timeframe): The primary downtrend that began after the historical high of 82,814 on May 6 is still ongoing. After the price fell from 82,814 through the secondary high of 73,975 on June 1 and the rebound high of 67,254 on June 15, it kept dropping to the low of 57,721 on July 1, for a cumulative drop of 25,093. After the July 1 bottom, bulls launched an ABC rebound (A wave 64,597 → B wave 61,470 → C wave 64,660). After the C wave ended, the price dropped back to the low of 61,750 on July 13. A V-shaped reversal appeared on July 14-15, with a sharp surge to 65,510 (the highest since July). The market briefly showed signals that the main trend might be turning. However, from July 16-17, consecutive sharp sell-offs pushed the price from 65,510 down to 62,462 at 13:30 on July 17, fully erasing all the gains from July 14-15 and making a new low since July 13. The close saw a rebound to 63,908, but the main trend remains deeply bearish; the July 14-15 rebound was only a relatively strong correction within the downtrend.
Short-term trend (15-minute timeframe): Since the high at 65,510 at 13:15 on July 15, the short-term downtrend has been accelerating. The short-term highs shifted down from 65,510 (7-15 13:15) to 65,020 (7-14 22:15) → 64,940 (7-16 05:30) → 64,780 (7-16 14:00) → 64,670 (7-16 16:00) → 64,430 (7-16 17:00) → 64,353 (7-17 18:45), showing a weak pattern of “notably lower highs.” The short-term lows moved from 64,431 (7-15 02:30) down to 64,042 (7-16 07:00) → 63,834 (7-16 08:00) → 63,691 (7-16 23:30) → 62,462 (7-17 13:30), with July 17 setting a new low since July 13. The late-day rebound on July 17 lifted from 62,462 to 64,353, but afterward it fell back to 63,908, with limited rebound strength.
Dow conclusion: The main trend is still a deep downtrend, and after breaking below the prior low of 63,691 on July 17, downside momentum has strengthened again. The short-term trend has entered an accelerated sell-off phase. 62,500 is the short-term life-or-death line; if it breaks, it opens downside room of 61,500-60,500-59,000. If it can hold above 63,500 and break 64,000, the short-term downtrend may temporarily ease, with rebound targets of 64,500-65,000.
II. Chan Theory
Fractal structure: On the 15-minute timeframe:
Top fractals: Appear at 65,510 (July 15 13:15), 64,940 (July 16 05:30), 64,780 (July 16 14:00), 64,670 (July 16 16:00), 64,430 (July 16 17:00), 64,353 (July 17 18:45), and other levels. The top fractals show a clear pattern of moving down, from 65,510 to the 64,300 area, indicating that bearish strength is continuously increasing.
Bottom fractals: Appear at 64,431 (July 15 02:30), 64,042 (July 16 07:00), 63,834 (July 16 08:00), 63,691 (July 16 23:30), 62,462 (July 17 13:30), and other levels. On July 17, bottom fractals shifted notably lower, from the 63,500 area down to the 62,400 area, indicating that the bulls’ willingness to absorb has sharply weakened.
Bi (strokes) and segments: From the top fractal at 65,510 to the bottom fractal at 62,462 (July 17 13:30), it forms a downward stroke with a drop of about 3,048—extremely strong. Previously, from the bottom fractal at 62,462 to the top fractal at 64,353 (July 17 18:45), it formed an upward stroke with a rise of about 1,892—relatively weak. Before that, from the top fractal at 64,353 to the bottom fractal at 63,908 (July 17 23:45), it formed another downward stroke with a drop of about 446—also weak. The strength of downward strokes (-3,048) is far greater than that of upward strokes (+1,892), indicating that bears are completely in control.
Central zone: In the 64,000-65,000 range, the July 14-15 candlesticks interwove densely and have formed a consolidation central zone in the sense of Chan theory. The price has fully broken below the lower boundary of that central zone, placing it in an accelerated down phase after the central zone breakdown. In the 62,500-64,000 range, the July 16-17 candlesticks interwove densely and are forming a new down central zone. The current price, 63,908, is inside that central zone near the upper portion, which corresponds to the pullback phase after the central zone construction.
Chan conclusion: Downward stroke strength is extremely large (-3,048) while upward stroke strength is weak (+1,892), showing bears have full control. The market is currently in the accelerated down phase after a breakdown of the central zone. For the short term, watch whether an effective bottom fractal can form around 62,500; if it does, upward strokes may restart. If it directly breaks below 62,000, the downward stroke will extend, with targets of 61,500-60,500-59,000.
III. Elliott Wave Theory
Based on the 1-hour swing structure, the move since the May 6 high of 82,814 is repartitioned as:
Higher-degree five-wave decline (completed):

Wave 1: 82,814 → 78,500 (May 7), magnitude about -4,300

Wave 2: 78,500 → 81,051 (May 10), magnitude about +2,551

Wave 3: 81,051 → 59,095 (June 5), magnitude about -21,956 (the main impulsive decline)

Wave 4: 59,095 → 67,247 (June 15), magnitude about +8,152

Wave 5: 67,247 → 57,721 (July 1), magnitude about -9,526
ABC rebound correction (confirmed ended):

A wave: 57,721 → 64,597 (July 6), magnitude +6,876

B wave: 64,597 → 61,470 (July 8), magnitude -3,127

C wave: 61,470 → 64,660 (July 10), magnitude +3,190 (C wave end)

X wave (correction): 64,660 → 61,750 (July 13), magnitude -2,910
New upwave attempt (failed confirmation):

Wave 1 (new): 61,750 → 65,510 (July 15), magnitude +3,760, strong impulse

Wave 2 pullback: 65,510 → 62,462 (July 17), magnitude -3,048; the pullback reached 80.5%, far exceeding the normal Wave 2 retracement range (typically 50%-61.8%), indicating the up structure failed completely.
New down cycle (in progress): A plunge from 65,510 to 62,462 (July 17), magnitude about -3,048. If equal in length to Wave 5, the target is about 59,100; if it is the start of a new Wave 1 decline, the target is 61,500-60,500-59,000.
Wave conclusion: The market is currently in a new down phase after the failed confirmation of the new up cycle. Wave 1 rose by 3,760, but Wave 2 retraced 3,048 (80.5%); the up structure failed completely. If price can hold above 63,000 and rebound to 64,000, it may form a secondary high and then continue the decline; if it breaks below 62,000, the new down cycle accelerates, targeting 61,500-60,500-59,000.
IV. Volume-Price Analysis
Overall volume-price characteristics: The July 1 crash showed extremely obvious volume expansion. From July 1-10, volume increased moderately during the rebound. From July 10-13, volume contracted during the pullback. On July 14-15, a breakout occurred with a surge in volume, with supportive volume-price coordination. On July 16, a volume expansion crash occurred, dropping from around 65,000 to 63,691. On July 17, there was an even larger volume-capacity crash, falling from around 64,000 to 62,462; trading volume expanded significantly, indicating that bearish selling pressure surged again and was extremely strong. During the late-day rebound on July 17 from 62,462 to 64,353, volume increased moderately, showing bulls tried to counterattack but with limited strength. Overall, the market shows a negative volume-price combination: “crash with heavy volume + bottom-building with contraction + rebound with heavy volume + another crash with heavy volume + rebound with contraction.”
Key volume-price nodes:

At 18:15 on July 13, a shrinking-volume stop to the decline appeared (volume only 155 million), forming the stage bottom at 61,750.

At 12:00 on July 14, a high-volume bullish candle appeared (volume at the 195 million level). Price surged from 62,784 to 63,888, confirming that the bulls’ counterattack had begun.

At 12:30 on July 15, a “sky-high” bullish candle appeared (volume at the 486 million level). Price pushed up from 64,664 to 64,876, confirming the start of Wave 3.

At 08:30 on July 16, a high-volume bearish candle appeared (volume at the 6.88T level). Price dumped from 64,089 to 63,834, confirming that bears began a counterattack.

At 05:00 on July 17, a “sky-high” bearish candle appeared (volume at the 895 million level). Price plunged from 63,397 to 63,305, confirming that panic selling emerged in force.

At 07:15 on July 17, a high-volume bearish candle appeared (volume at the 787 million level). Price fell from 62,848 to 62,741, confirming that bears were dominant.

At 13:30 on July 17, a high-volume bearish candle appeared (volume at the 437 million level). Price dumped from 62,828 to 62,462, confirming the stage low.

At 18:45 on July 17, a high-volume bullish candle appeared (volume at the 428 million level). Price rose from 64,111 to 64,353, confirming that the rebound had begun.
Recent volume-price status: During the late-day pullback on July 17 from 64,353 down to 63,908, trading volume contracted, indicating that selling pressure weakened—but buying demand was also insufficient.
Volume-price conclusion: After the heavy-volume crash on July 17, the late-day rebound saw contracting volume, indicating that bulls lack strength. Key observation points: If the rebound reaches 64,000-64,500 with a breakout on expanding volume, it may form a secondary high. If the price breaks down below 62,000 with renewed expanding volume, the next down cycle will accelerate.
V. Order Flow
Trade volume distribution (Volume Profile): In the recent 5 days (July 13-17), the volume control point (POC) is at 62,036. The current price of 63,908 is about 1,872 above the POC, indicating the market is in a premium state above value (Above Value).
Current positioning analysis: Price at 63,908 is far above the POC at 62,036, meaning it is above the value area. The Value Area is 62,343-64,673; the current price sits near the middle to slightly lower part of the Value Area, showing that short-term bull-bear power is tending toward balance. The lower edge of the Value Area, 62,343, is extreme support, while 64,673 is short-term resistance.
High Volume Nodes (HVN):

64,000-65,000: Overhead resistance HVN (July 14-15 high-density trading zone; current strong resistance)

62,000-63,000: Core support HVN (July 16-17 high-density trading zone; current strong support)

61,500-62,500: Extreme support HVN (July 13 high-density trading zone)

59,000-60,000: Extreme support HVN (July 1 high-density trading zone)
Delta analysis: During the surge on July 14-15, Delta turned sharply positive (at the +6 billion level), confirming that active buying dominated. During the crash on July 16-17, Delta again turned sharply negative (at the -8 billion level), confirming that sell orders emerged actively in the 62,000-65,000 range. During the late-day rebound on July 17, Delta turned slightly positive (+2 billion level), showing buyers’ strength recovered somewhat, but with limited force. Currently, Delta MA12 has risen from deep negative back to around the zero axis (-1.06B), indicating that bull-bear power is leaning toward balance.
Order flow conclusion: Price is above the POC at 62,036, suggesting short-term bull-bear balance. Overhead 64,000 and 64,500 are two key HVN resistance levels; below, 62,500 and 62,000 are two key HVN support levels. If Delta stays positive and volume expands to break out in the 63,500-64,000 area, it may form a secondary high. If Delta turns deeply negative again and price breaks below 62,000, the next down move will accelerate.
VI. Price Action
Support and resistance levels:

Strong resistances: 82,814 (stage high), 73,975 (June 1 high), 67,500 (June 15 rebound high), 65,510 (July 15 high)

Key resistances: 66,000 (psychological level), 65,500 (July 15 spike-and-retrace zone), 65,000 (psychological level), 64,500 (July 17 rebound high zone), 64,000 (integer level)

Key supports: 63,500 (upper edge of the consolidation zone on July 17), 63,000 (psychological level), 62,500 (July 17 low zone), 62,462 (July 17 heavy-sell-off low), 61,750 (July 13 low), 61,470 (July 8 heavy-sell-off low), 60,000 (integer level), 59,000 (psychological level), 57,721 (July 1 heavy-sell-off low)
Candlestick patterns:

At 18:15 on July 13, a candle with a long lower wick formed, creating a “hammer” bottom pattern at 61,750.

At 12:00 on July 14, a large bullish candle appeared (body about +1,104). It surged from 62,784 to 63,888, forming a “breakout bullish candle.”

At 13:15 on July 15, a candle with a long upper wick appeared (upper wick about 300). After rallying from 65,200 to 65,510, it retraced, forming a “evening star” bearish pattern.

At 08:30 on July 16, a high-volume bearish candle appeared (body about -255). It crashed from 64,089 to 63,834, showing bears began a counterattack.

At 05:00 on July 17, a “sky-high” bearish candle appeared (body about -26). It dumped from 63,397 to 63,305, showing panic selling spilled out.

At 13:30 on July 17, a big bearish candle with a long lower wick formed (body about -329, lower wick about 366). After the drop from 62,828 to 62,462, it rebounded to 62,871. This formed a “hammer” bottom pattern, indicating that bulls are absorbing around 62,500.

At 18:45 on July 17, a large bullish candle appeared (body about +243). It rallied from 64,111 to 64,353, showing bulls’ counterattack.
Trend structure:

Short term: Since July 15’s 65,510, the declining channel is accelerating; lower channel support is around 62,000, and upper resistance is around 64,500.

Medium term: The downtrend line since May 6’s 82,814 is still effective, and price has moved far away from that trend line.
Price action conclusion: In the short term, the market is in the heavy sell-off area after the failure of the new up cycle. 62,500 is the bulls’ defense line for the short term; 63,500 is the bull-bear dividing line: a breakout could form a secondary high with targets of 64,000-64,500; if it fails, it will revisit the 62,000-61,500 area.
综合研判
Dow theory signals that the main trend remains a deep decline and that after breaking below 63,691 on July 17, downside momentum has strengthened again; the short-term trend has entered an accelerated sell-off phase. Chan theory shows downward stroke strength is extremely large (-3,048) while upward stroke strength is relatively weak (+1,892), and the market is currently in the accelerated down phase after a breakdown of the central zone. Elliott wave theory confirms that the new up cycle failed completely: the Wave 2 retracement was too deep (-3,048, 80.5%), and a new down cycle is unfolding. The volume-price relationship shows a negative combination of “heavy-volume crash again + contracting volume during rebound.” Order flow shows POC at 62,036, with price in a premium state; Delta MA12 has risen back near the zero axis. Price action shows a “hammer” bottom pattern + a “rebound bullish candle” pattern, with short-term bull-bear power drifting toward balance.
Short-term strategy suggestions:

Bullish scenario: If price shows shrinking-volume stabilization, a bottom fractal, and Delta turning positive around 62,500-63,000, you may go long, with targets of 63,500 → 64,000 → 64,500 and a stop-loss at 61,800.

Bearish scenario: If price rebounds to 64,000-64,500, and a top fractal forms along with a heavy-volume sell-off, confirming that the new down cycle is accelerating, then you may take a short position, with targets of 62,500 → 61,500 and a stop-loss at 65,000.

Current status: 63,908 is in the rebound pullback zone after the sell-off; short-term bull-bear power is tending toward balance. It is suggested to wait for a break above 64,500 to confirm the formation of a secondary high before chasing longs, or wait for a break below 62,000 to confirm acceleration of the new down cycle before chasing shorts.