Bitcoin $57,700 is probably not the final bottom of this market’s bear cycle. The market is still in a deep correction phase, and there are not enough multi-signal confirmations of a bottom yet.

Based on historical bear-market patterns, each Bitcoin bear cycle typically has three major features: drawdown depth, time span, and the performance ratio of altcoins. In this cycle, since the peak at $126k in October 2025, it has fallen to $57,700, with a maximum drawdown of about 54%. Although this is the smallest drawdown among past bear markets, it is still short of the historical average decline of 80% or more. Meanwhile, the bear market has already lasted 237 days; although it is the fourth-longest in history, it has not yet reached the typical cycle length of roughly the previous 12 months. In addition, the altcoin-to-ETH ratio decline in this cycle is only 44.3%, far below the 86.6% level seen in previous bear markets, suggesting that market risk appetite has not been fully cleared.

With the market still facing multiple pressures: ongoing net outflows from ETFs, the Fed’s balance-sheet reduction not yet stopping, real yields staying high, and leveraged institutional positions continuing to de-risk, along with stress in the stock market. These factors collectively suppress Bitcoin’s rebound momentum. If the current move turns out to be a “false breakout,” the true bottom may be in the first quarter of 2027, or even fall into the $40k range. $BTC ‌#夏日创作营