A brief analysis of BTC intraday direction from the perspective of the Dow Theory, Chan Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, price-volume relationship, order flow, and price action (strategy suggestions)

$BTC #BTC 综合研判

The Dow Theory indicates that the main trend is still a deep downtrend, along with a signal that on July 17 the market broke below the prior low of 63,691 and the bearish momentum has been strengthened again; the short-term trend has entered an accelerated sell-off phase.
Chan Theory shows that the downward strokes are extremely strong (-3,048) while the upward strokes are relatively weak (+1,892); the current situation is in an accelerated sell-off stage after a breakdown of the central range.
The Elliott Wave Theory confirms that the new round of the upward impulse wave has completely failed; the Wave 2 correction is too deep (-3,048, retracement 80.5%), and a new downtrend has begun.
The price-volume relationship presents a negative combination of “capitulation sell-off with high volume + rebound with shrinking volume.”
Order flow shows POC at 62,036, with price trading at a premium; the Delta MA12 has rebounded to near the zero axis.
Price action shows a “hammer” bottom pattern + a “bullish rebound candle” pattern, and the short-term bullish/bearish forces are tending toward balance.

Short-term strategy suggestions:

Bullish scenario: If price shows a down-volume stop to the sell-off + a bottom fractal + Delta turning positive around 62,500-63,000, you can try a long; targets 63,500 → 64,000 → 64,500; stop-loss 61,800.

Bearish scenario: If the rebound reaches 64,000-64,500 and a top fractal appears along with heavy-volume sell-off, confirming an acceleration in the new downtrend, you can go short; targets 62,500 → 61,500; stop-loss 65,000.

Current status: 63,908 is in the rebound pullback zone after the crash, and short-term bulls and bears are leaning toward balance. It is recommended to wait for a breakout above 64,500 to confirm the formation of a second high before chasing longs, or wait for a breakdown below 62,000 to confirm the acceleration of the new downtrend before chasing shorts.