US macro & Federal Reserve major updates

1. The University of Michigan’s preliminary July consumer confidence index surged to 54.4, the highest in nearly five months. The public’s one-year inflation expectations fell to 4.2%, below the prior 4.6%, and a temporary decline in oil prices effectively eased residents’ inflation anxieties.

2. Cleveland Fed Chair Hammack publicly issued hawkish remarks: current inflation remains too high. The U.S. labor market is already nearing full employment, and there is no clear signal of rate cuts in the near term. The comments directly curb the market’s excessive easing-rate-cut expectations and suppress upside room for risk-asset rebounds.

3. Divergence of views inside the Federal Reserve: Governor Waller said a 25-basis-point rate cut at the July FOMC meeting is reasonable and that tariff-driven inflation fluctuations are short-term effects; but Powell has consistently upheld the Fed’s independence and rejected White House pressure to interfere with monetary policy decision-making.
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