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Late at night, the rescue attempt failed—one day felt like an entire century.
‖Last night, the traders at the NYSE no longer had the smiles they used to.
—In the market of the Vosh era, it needs to face volatility on its own.
The suffocating Friday is over; one day felt like a century:
- US stocks ended broadly lower across the board, with both the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq index falling by more than 1%. There was no buffer provided for the opening of next week’s Asian markets.
- Gold prices rebounded, rising above $4,000.
- The US dollar edged slightly higher, but it did not break above the 101 level. The yield on 10-year US Treasuries fell a bit, closing at 4.54%. US crude oil surged sharply, far above $80.
First, when you look only at the declines in US stock indexes, they seem manageable—but the market is still tense. Because the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 1.6%, with the decline widening to 20%, which fits the definition of a bear market. On Monday, Asia’s markets will open by first picking up the “first leg” of the bear-market move triggered by the Philly Semis’ drop.
China’s AI companies made Wall Street nervous again. Mysterious organizations announced its new-generation, low-cost AI model, Kimi K3, from Moonshot—hitting the most sensitive nerves of US tech giants. Suddenly, the market began asking: if Chinese models can achieve similar, or even stronger, capabilities at lower cost, then with US tech giants’ AI capital expenditures running into hundreds of billions of dollars, is there a risk of overbuilding? Investors compared it to last year’s “DeepSeek moment.” After DeepSeek came out, the global AI sector saw a round of rapid adjustments. As Chinese models demonstrated similar reasoning and coding capabilities at low cost, Wall Street would quickly revise its expectations for these giants’ future pricing power.
Second, among the three closely watched markets (the dollar, Treasury yields, and crude oil), only oil prices showed a breakout—this is why the selloff in US stocks was relatively restrained. However, even though the dollar and Treasury yields did not surge, they still remain at relatively high levels.
Third, the moves in gold and S&P 500 index futures are worth paying close attention. Both rebounded after 22:00 Beijing time—at the same time, data from the University of Michigan showed US 1-year inflation expectations fell from 4.6% to 4.2%. Ever since Trump’s second term began, whenever the market drops at a time when it’s hard to get its first round of relief, there’s always a magical piece of data that’s favorable for markets. But last night, in the end, gold held onto its gains and closed at the intraday high, while S&P 500 index futures gave back most of the gains and closed at the intraday low. Economic data only saved gold—it did not save US stocks.
What’s even more notable is that in such a dramatic, high-stakes moment last night, the Federal Reserve said nothing. And that, in itself, is a kind of information.